永安期货集运早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the holiday, there are multiple upward drivers, including multiple price - hike announcement nodes, high operational space for shipping companies to reduce speed and suspend voyages, and the long - term contract signing season from December to January. Meanwhile, the economy in Northwest Europe is deteriorating, and new ships are being launched successively. Overall, the valuations of contracts 12 and 02 are still high, but they may fluctuate in the short term due to the poor implementation expectation in late October and the price - hike announcement expectation in November. Contract 04 has a currently high valuation, and as an off - season contract, it is more suitable for short - selling in the short term, but attention should be paid to the fact that its low liquidity may make it vulnerable to short - term disturbances [2][26]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Contract Prices: On September 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 were 1115.0, 1756.3, 1667.0, 1253.0, and 1452.7 respectively, with changes of - 2.11%, - 1.16%, - 1.07%, - 1.23%, and - 2.08% [2][26]. - Open Interest Changes: The open interests of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 changed by - 3117, - 1012, 84, 11, and - 8 respectively [2][26]. - Monthly Spreads: For EC2510 - 2512, the spread was - 641.3, with a day - on - day change of - 3.3 and a week - on - week change of - 11749. For FC2512 - 2602, the spread was 89.3, with a day - on - day change of - 2.7 and a week - on - week change of 1.5 [2][26]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Freight Indexes: As of September 26, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 971 US dollars/TEU, down 7.70% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1401.91 points, down 4.69%; the NCFI was 614.14 points, down 8.85% [2][26]. 3.3 Short - term European Line Quotations - Week 40 - 41: Two - week joint cabin release, with an average quotation of 1450 US dollars (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted 1400, PA quoted 1300 - 1500, YML's 1300 was the lowest price of the year, and OA quoted 1400 - 1600 US dollars [2][26]. - Week 42: MSK's cabin - opening quotation was 1800 US dollars (a 400 - dollar increase from the previous period). ONE, OOCL, COSCO, and HPL successively announced price hikes to 2000 US dollars after the holiday, while CMA and MSC announced price hikes to 2200 US dollars [2][26].