广发期货日评-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's expected interest rate cut, the market quickly digested the expectations and entered a volatile phase. The technology sector remains the dominant theme in the market. As the long holiday approaches, there are structural rotations in some sectors [3]. - The strength of the stock market has suppressed the performance of ultra - long bonds, which are significantly weaker. The T2512 contract has support around 107.4 [3]. - The US government shutdown crisis has continued to escalate, causing precious metals to maintain a strong upward trend. Silver is expected to reach a new historical high [3]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap in the steel market is narrowing, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The decline in shipments, increase in hot metal production, and replenishment demand support the high - level volatile operation of iron ore prices [3]. 3. Summary by Catalog Financial Sector - Equity Index: Driven by brokerage stocks, the equity index fluctuated upward. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on the MO2511 contract with a strike price around 6800 to collect premiums [3]. - Treasury Bonds: In the face of a strong stock market, ultra - long bonds are weak. It is recommended for investors to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to PMI data. Before the National Day holiday, consider buying straddle options to capture overseas market fluctuations, and later, buy out - of - the - money call options [3]. - Precious Metals: The US government shutdown has boosted precious metals. Silver is expected to reach new highs, but the upward trend may moderate from October to November. It is advisable to buy on dips [3]. - Container Freight (European Line): The EC market is weakly volatile. It is recommended to go long on the December and February contracts on dips [3]. Black Metals Sector - Steel: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and inventory pressure is low. Sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Iron Ore: High - level volatile operation is expected. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 750 - 830), and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [3]. - Coking Coal: Spot prices are stable with a slight upward trend, but futures prices have fallen from highs. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1150 - 1300), and consider the arbitrage of long iron ore and short coking coal [3]. - Coke: Mainstream coke producers are raising prices, but the upside may be limited. Go short on the 2601 contract at high levels (reference range: 1550 - 1750), and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: Due to supply concerns from the Grasberg mine, copper prices remain high. Hold long positions and focus on the support level of 81000 - 81500 [3]. - Alumina: Weekly inventory accumulation continues, and cost support limits the downside. The main contract is expected to trade between 2850 - 3150 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: OPEC's further production increase has raised market concerns, but geopolitical premiums provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade within a range. It is recommended to use a band - trading strategy and wait for opportunities to expand option spreads [3]. - Urea: High supply pressure persists, and demand support is weak before the holiday. The market center of gravity is shifting downwards. Go short at high levels, and consider narrowing option spreads after the implied volatility rises [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Grains and Oils: Palm oil in Malaysia rebounded, and soybean oil followed the upward trend of the external market. The main palm oil contract is expected to trade between 9200 - 9300 in the short term [3]. - Sugar: Overseas supply is expected to be abundant. Trade short on rebounds [3]. - Cotton: With the new cotton harvest, supply pressure is increasing. Hold short positions [3]. Special Commodities Sector - Glass: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market has rebounded and then declined. Observe the market cautiously [3]. - Rubber: The trading atmosphere is weak, and rubber prices are trending downwards. Wait and see [3]. New Energy Sector - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Wait and see for now [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by news, the market has strengthened. The main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [3].