工业硅期货早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, with last week's supply at 93,000 tons, a 1.09% week - on - week increase. The demand is also rising, reaching 86,000 tons last week, a 7.50% week - on - week growth. However, the overall market situation is complex, with high inventories in multiple downstream sectors and varying profit and loss conditions [6]. - The supply of polysilicon increased slightly last week, with a production of 31,100 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week increase. The demand side shows a mixed picture, with some products in a loss state and others in profit. The overall demand is expected to be weak in the short - term but may rebound later [8]. - The main factors affecting the market include cost support, demand recovery after the holiday, and the supply - demand imbalance in the downstream polysilicon market. There are both positive and negative factors, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [10][11]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Fundamentals: Supply increased, demand rose, and inventories in downstream sectors such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and alloy ingots were at high levels. Some production was in a loss state, and the comprehensive operating rate of organic silicon was lower than the historical average [6]. - Basis: The spot price of industrial silicon in East China was at a premium to the futures price, which is considered a positive factor [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory remained flat, while the sample enterprise inventory decreased. The inventory at major ports remained unchanged, presenting a mixed signal [6]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, but the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, indicating a negative factor [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule increased, demand recovery was at a low level, and cost support increased. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,475 - 8,745 [6]. Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and the demand side had different performance in various products. Some were in a loss state, and some were profitable. The overall demand was expected to decline in the short - term but may rebound later [8]. - Basis: The N - type dense material spot price was at a premium to the futures price, which is a positive factor [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was at a high level, showing a neutral situation [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, indicating a negative factor [8]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, and the long position increased, suggesting a positive factor [8]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule decreased in the short - term and is expected to recover in the medium - term. The overall demand is expected to decline but may rebound later. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,340 - 52,220 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of multiple contracts decreased, with the 01 - contract price dropping from 9,320 to 8,955, a 3.92% decline. Spot prices of some products remained unchanged, and there were changes in inventory and production data [14]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and there were changes in the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. The inventory of polysilicon was at a high level, and the production and export of related products also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price and Basis Trends - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product spread trends showed the historical trends of the basis and the spread between different grades of silicon [18][19]. - Polysilicon disk price trends presented the price and trading volume trends of the main contract, as well as the basis trend [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - Industrial silicon inventory included social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and inventory at major ports. The inventory situation varied, with some remaining flat and some decreasing [6][14]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends showed the historical production and capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises and different grades of silicon [26][27][28]. - Polysilicon inventory was at a high level, and there were changes in the production and inventory of related products such as silicon wafers and battery cells [8][16]. 3.5 Cost and Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon cost trends showed the cost and profit trends of different regions and grades of silicon [33][34]. - Industrial silicon supply - demand balance included weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables, showing the production, import, export, and consumption of industrial silicon [35][36][38][39]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, were presented. The production profit of organic silicon was in a loss state, and the inventory was at a high level [41][42][43][44][45]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy were shown. There were changes in the price, cost, and profit of imported ADC12, and the production and inventory of different types of aluminum alloy ingots also had corresponding changes [51][52][54][55]. Polysilicon - The production, inventory, and price trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were analyzed. The profit and loss situation of different products varied, and the overall market situation was complex [8][16].