大越期货甲醇早报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates limited fluctuations in the domestic methanol market this week as trading slows down approaching the long holiday. Inland, high downstream raw material inventories may lead to reduced procurement, and tightened transportation capacity may prompt traders to stay on the sidelines. Upstream methanol plants have low inventories due to significant external procurement by northwest CTO plants, with no pre - holiday inventory clearance needs. The inland market is expected to have a quiet consolidation. At ports, bears still hold the upper hand, and the pre - holiday methanol market price may maintain a volatile adjustment. In October, there are significant variables, mainly whether some Iranian plants will undergo scheduled maintenance, the reduction in shipping volume, and the degree of port inventory depletion. With marginal improvements in fundamentals, attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities in the port market under speculation. The report expects the methanol price to fluctuate this week, with MA2601 trading between 2330 - 2400 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the methanol market, including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and expected price ranges for MA2601 [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some plants have shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); Iranian methanol production has decreased; port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there is expected to be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season; MTBE operating rates have significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: As of September 29, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu was 2253 yuan/ton, the futures closing price was 2359 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 106 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The week - on - week change in the spot price was 0.58%, and that of the futures price was 0.68% [8][9][11]. - Inventory: As of September 25, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 1268,100 tons, a decrease of 61,700 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) decreased by 68,900 tons to 880,600 tons [5]. - Operating Rates: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points from the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions also decreased, with the northwest region at 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - Profitability of Different Processes: Coal - based methanol profit was 206 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; natural gas - based methanol profit was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; and coke - oven gas - based methanol profit was 389 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 327 yuan/ton [19]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and some are still undetermined [58]. - Foreign Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have uncertain operating conditions. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, but verification is needed. Other plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries also have different operating states, such as normal operation, restarting, or undergoing maintenance [59]. - Olefin Plants: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating states. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, expected to last 45 days. Other plants in the northwest and east regions also have various operating conditions, including normal operation, reduced load, and long - term shutdown [60].