大越期货菜粕早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - The rapeseed meal was affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, so it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate between 2380 and 2440. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is positive, the inventory is decreasing and is bullish, the price is below the 20 - day moving average and bearish, the main short positions are increasing and bearish, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 19th to 29th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2620 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was between 2968 - 3030 yuan. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was between 410 - 468 yuan [13]. - From September 19th to 29th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2528 yuan, the price of the far - month 2605 contract was between 2319 - 2387 yuan, and the spot price in Fujian was between 2500 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 17th to 29th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10104 to 9245 [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat [24]. - The amount of rapeseed crushed by oil mills decreased significantly [26]. - The price of aquaculture fish rebounded slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - No information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2380 - 2440. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the possible tariff cuts between China and Canada, and is expected to remain volatile in the short term [9].