广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to remain high, with demand support limited, and price drivers are weak. BZ2603 should follow styrene and oil prices in a volatile manner [1]. - Styrene supply is expected to increase, and demand support may be limited. Prices are expected to remain under pressure. EB11 should be treated as a short - term short opportunity on price rebounds, and the EB11 - BZ11 spread can be widened at low levels, but the driving force is limited [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX supply is expected to be weak in the fourth quarter, and prices are under pressure [6]. - PTA new device commissioning is postponed, and there is short - term support for the basis due to downstream restocking demand [7]. - MEG is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter, with high supply in October [6]. - Short - fiber has a weak short - term supply - demand pattern, and prices fluctuate with limited up - and - down drivers [8]. - Bottle - chip may enter a downward phase in the fourth quarter, and processing fees are expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - PE's current maintenance is at a high point, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. The 01 contract has high inventory pressure. PP has high production losses, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, the demand is lackluster [10][11]. Urea - The urea market has a loose supply - demand pattern, with high production, weak demand, and a downward - trending price [15]. Methanol - The core contradiction in the methanol market is the game between high current supply and the expected supply tightening due to potential Iranian gas restrictions. The near - term contract's downside is limited, and it is necessary to closely monitor Iranian device dynamics [17]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to supply - side concerns. The market's view on supply has shifted, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Band - trading is recommended [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic soda has a short - term supply - demand imbalance, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, there may be a change in the supply - demand pattern due to downstream capacity expansion [28]. - PVC's domestic demand is weak, but exports relieve some pressure. The price has limited downside during the peak season, and cost support is at the bottom [28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene and Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and most pure benzene and styrene - related prices and spreads also changed slightly [1]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Cash flows of most pure benzene and styrene downstream products increased [1]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while styrene inventory increased [1]. - Industry Start - up Rates: The start - up rates of most products in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed to varying degrees, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed, and the fourth - quarter supply - demand outlook is weak [4][6]. - PTA: PTA prices were stable, and processing fees decreased slightly. New device commissioning was postponed [5][7]. - MEG: MEG prices changed slightly, and it is expected to enter a inventory - building phase in the fourth quarter [6]. - Short - fiber: Short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices fluctuate [8]. - Bottle - chip: There is a potential new device commissioning in the fourth quarter, and demand support is insufficient [8]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - Prices and Spreads: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP changed slightly, and spreads also changed [10]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [11]. - Start - up Rates: PE and PP device start - up rates increased, and downstream weighted start - up rates also increased [10][11]. Urea - Prices and Spreads: Urea prices decreased slightly, and basis and spreads changed [15]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [15]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices changed slightly, and spreads and basis also changed [17]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [17]. - Start - up Rates: Upstream and downstream start - up rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [17]. Crude Oil - Prices and Spreads: Crude oil and refined product prices decreased, and spreads and cracking spreads also changed [20]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Supply: Caustic soda and PVC start - up rates and industry profits changed [24]. - Demand: Downstream start - up rates of caustic soda and PVC changed [25][26]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda and PVC inventories changed [27].