Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - Zinc: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - Tin: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - Nickel: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - Supply and Inventory: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-09-30 05:09