沪铜产业日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen and then pulled back, with increased open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper price cost support logic remains due to the tight supply of copper concentrate. The domestic copper production is expected to increase slightly, while the downstream copper product start - up is expected to improve significantly. The social inventory may gradually decrease, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 83,110 yuan/ton, up 740 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,383 dollars/ton, down 31 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 213,859 lots, up 67 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 8,035 lots, up 7085 lots. The LME copper inventory is 143,900 tons, down 500 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 98,779 tons, down 7035 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper is 26,823 tons, down 2856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 83,240 yuan/ton, up 1030 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 83,100 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan. The CIF price of Shanghai electrolytic copper (bill of lading) is 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 52 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.22 dollars/ton, up 9.69 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 73,340 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 74,040 yuan/metal ton, up 760 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the North is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The production of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 56,540 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 69,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,796 billion yuan, up 481.03 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6729.42 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 14.54%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.40%, up 0.16%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 21.33%, down 0.0031%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, down 0.0486 [2] Industry News - New York Fed President Williams supported rate cuts due to labor market weakness; St. Louis Fed President Musalem is open to future rate cuts but cautious; Cleveland Fed President Harker advocates maintaining a tight monetary policy. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee is studying the 15th Five - Year Plan. The China Household Electrical Appliances Association opposes unfair competition in the industry [2]