瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250930

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market shows a weak and volatile trend. In terms of fundamentals, overseas miners still have a strong willingness to support prices, and domestic lithium ore supply is expected to gradually become clear, with prices likely to remain firm. Supply is expected to increase due to the traditional consumption season and positive policies, and overall domestic lithium carbonate supply may increase slightly. Demand is boosted by the traditional consumption season, and the industry maintains a high - growth trend. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows green bars emerging above the 0 - axis. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,120 yuan. The net position of the top 20 is - 158,219 hands, an increase of 4,755 hands. The main contract position is 231,964 hands, a decrease of 19,785 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 41,119 hands/ton, an increase of 790 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 750 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,120 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 876 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of amblygonite is 7,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan. The average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 45,880 tons per month, an increase of 1,280 tons. Imports are 21,846.92 tons per month, an increase of 8,001.60 tons. Exports are 368.91 tons per month, an increase of 2.56 tons. The lithium carbonate enterprise operating rate is 46%, a decrease of 2 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Power battery production is 139,600 MWh per month, an increase of 5,800 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 61,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 123,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, an increase of 3 percentage points. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 57%, an increase of 6 percentage points. New energy vehicle production is 1,391,000 vehicles, an increase of 148,000 vehicles. New energy vehicle sales are 1,395,000 vehicles, an increase of 133,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 45.53%, an increase of 0.54 percentage points. The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles are 9,620,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,583,000 vehicles. New energy vehicle exports are 224,000 vehicles, a decrease of 10,000 vehicles. The cumulative exports of new energy vehicles are 1,532,000 vehicles, an increase of 714,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 23.9%, a decrease of 3.41 percentage points. The 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 41.45%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The total call position is 233,085 contracts, an increase of 6,534 contracts. The total put position is 103,888 contracts, a decrease of 376 contracts. The put - call ratio of the total position is 44.57%, a decrease of 1.4514 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.49%, an increase of 0.0235 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Longjing Environmental Protection stated that its energy - storage cells are currently in full - production and full - sales status, with over 90% of products sold externally (excluding internal green - power projects), and customers are mainly domestic first - tier mainstream energy - storage integrators and energy enterprises. Through cooperation with EVE Energy, its brand value and competitiveness continue to improve. In August 2025, automobile exports were 763,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 10.0% and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%, with an export value of 12.82 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. From January to August 2025, automobile exports were 4.928 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.4%; the export value was 84.31 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. The deputy minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Xiong Jijun, said that a new round of work plans to stabilize the growth of the automobile industry will be implemented, optimizing preferential measures such as vehicle purchase tax and vehicle and vessel tax for new energy vehicles, and establishing an access management system for combined assisted driving and autonomous driving vehicles. The eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing the Growth of the Non - ferrous Metals Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual increase of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry and an average annual increase of about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, strengthening resource surveys and explorations of copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, tin, etc., and promoting the innovative application of advanced materials such as superconducting materials, liquid metals, and high - entropy alloys [2]