瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall output of domestic methanol has increased slightly as the output from restored capacities is more than the losses from maintenance and production cuts. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol plants is expected to continue rising and production to increase as planned maintenance and production - cut capacities are less than planned restored capacities this week. - Last week, the inventory of inland methanol enterprises decreased due to the approaching long - term contract settlement period, continuous external procurement by some olefin enterprises, and pre - holiday stocking by traditional downstream industries. - The domestic methanol port inventory decreased last week. In the East China region, the overall inventory declined as the unloading of foreign vessels was lower than expected, and the提货 volume remained high in the main storage areas of Jiangsu, and terminal consumption in Zhejiang increased steadily. In the South China region, inventory decreased due to weather - affected import and domestic trade unloading speed and reduced arrivals, along with good pre - holiday stocking - supported提货 volume. - The overall load of olefin enterprises in the East China region increased slightly. The restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and Ningxia Baofeng Phase III plants drove up the domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate last week. Attention should be paid to whether the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant will restart this week. During the National Day holiday, attention should be paid to the operating conditions of Iranian plants and relevant news about winter gas restrictions from the Iranian government [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,328 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 34 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The main contract's open interest was 888,083 lots, an increase of 18,583 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 137,576 lots, an increase of 335 lots. - The number of warehouse receipts was 11,862, an increase of 1,030 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,245 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,095 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The East - West price spread was 155 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 114 yuan/ton. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 261 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 275 euros/ton, down 5 euros; the price spread between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.27 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.41 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 103.27 tons, a decrease of 4.12 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 45.95 tons, a decrease of 2.44 tons. - The import profit of methanol was 5.22 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 175.98 tons, an increase of 65.71 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 319,900 tons, a decrease of 20,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 82.53%, an increase of 2.62 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 44.18%, an increase of 1.26 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid was 78.97%, a decrease of 3.44 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 7.2%, an increase of 0.91 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE was 64.23%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points. - The operating rate of olefins was 88.18%, an increase of 4.37 percentage points; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 932 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 11.06%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.82%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.07%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 17.06%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of September 24, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 31.99 tons, a decrease of 2.05 tons or 6.03% from the previous period; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 27.30 tons, an increase of 3.92 tons or 16.79% from the previous period. - As of September 24, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 149.22 tons, a decrease of 6.56 tons from the previous data. - As of September 25, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 89.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.36% [2] 3.8 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the inventory data of Longzhong enterprises and ports on Wednesday [2]