瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of styrene are weak, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. The futures main contract is expected to show a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of international oil prices during the holiday on the post - holiday opening [3] - In October, large - scale styrene production capacity is planned to be put into operation, while the downstream EPS, PS, and ABS production capacity is concentrated from November to December, resulting in a phased mismatch in downstream production. The demand side needs to be treated with caution before downstream inventory reduction and profit repair [3] - The inventory is expected to continue the trend of small - scale reduction at a high level, and the high inventory will continue to suppress prices. Currently, the profit of integrated plants has shrunk to a relatively low level, and the cost support is gradually strengthening, limiting the downward space of styrene prices [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of styrene futures (active contract) is 213,060, and the closing price of the active contract is 6,835 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 97. The 2511 contract of styrene futures (EB) fell 1.50% to close at 6,835 yuan/ton [2] - The long position of the top 20 holders of styrene futures is 350,361 hands, with a decrease of 3,349 hands; the net long position is - 19,617 hands, with a decrease of 740 hands; the short position is 369,978 hands, with a decrease of 2,609 hands [2] - The futures open interest of styrene (active contract) is 332,781 hands, with a decrease of 6,971 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 0 hands, with a decrease of 185 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 7,120 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price is 846 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton; the CFR China intermediate price is 856 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 0.5 US dollars/ton [2] - The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions are 6,780 yuan/ton, 7,060 yuan/ton, 6,800 yuan/ton, and 6,915 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 40, and - 35 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 811 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 811 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 733.5 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 2.5 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2] - The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB), Taiwan (CIF), and Rotterdam (FOB) are 712.19 cents/gallon, 252 US dollars/ton, and 663 US dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 1, and 7 US dollars/ton. The market prices in the South, East, and North China regions are 5,900 yuan/ton, 5,860 yuan/ton, and 5,870 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 20, and 0 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate is 73.24%, with a decrease of 0.2%. From September 19th to 25th, the styrene output decreased by 0.29% to 345,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.24% [2] - The national styrene inventory is 203,274 tons, with a decrease of 13,009 tons. As of September 25th, the styrene factory inventory was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6.01% from last week [2] - The total inventory in the East China main port is 197,500 tons, with an increase of 5.90%; the trade inventory is 106,800 tons, with an increase of 0.83%. As of September 29th, the East China port inventory of styrene was 197,500 tons, with an increase of 5.90%; the South China port inventory was 25,000 tons, with an increase of 83.82% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 55.25%, 70%, 59.1%, 33%, and 70.43% respectively, with changes of - 6.49%, + 0.2%, - 2.1%, - 1%, and 0 respectively [2] - From September 19th to 25th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS of styrene decreased by 4.46% to 265,900 tons [2] Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the styrene output decreased by 0.29% to 345,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 73.24% [2] - From September 19th to 25th, the consumption of styrene downstream EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 4.46% to 265,900 tons [2] - As of September 25th, the styrene factory inventory was 203,300 tons, a decrease of 6.01% from last week. As of September 29th, the East China port inventory of styrene was 197,500 tons, an increase of 5.90%; the South China port inventory was 25,000 tons, an increase of 83.82% [2] - The EB2511 contract fell 1.50% to close at 6,835 yuan/ton. Last week, a 620,000 - ton maintenance device of Zhenhai Liande was added, an 800,000 - ton device of Guangdong Petrochemical was restarted, and the impact of the previously shut - down 1.2 - million - ton device of Zhejiang Petrochemical expanded, resulting in a narrow decline in styrene output and capacity utilization [2]