南华期货油料产业周报：阿根廷免税窗口关闭，巴西加速播种-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on Sino-US negotiations in the fourth quarter. Without new agreements, the outer market will remain range - bound at the bottom. With effective agreements, it will rebound above the cost line. The upside of the domestic soybean sector is limited by high inventory, and the downside is supported by purchase costs. The previous trading logic of a domestic soybean supply gap has weakened, and Brazilian soybean planting will add pressure in the fourth quarter. - Rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal in the fourth quarter. Before November, rapeseed meal may be stronger than soybean meal due to the extension of anti - dumping investigations on rapeseed. After November, it will face the arrival of Australian rapeseed, and inventory may increase by the end of the year. - The overall market trend is expected to be range - bound, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2800 - 3200 [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Soybean Meal: The outer market is affected by Sino - US negotiations and export orders. The domestic market is restricted by high inventory and supported by purchase costs. The previous supply - gap logic has weakened [1]. - Rapeseed Meal: It follows soybean meal. Before November, it may be stronger due to anti - dumping investigations. After November, inventory may increase [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Range - bound oscillation. - Price Range: M2601 oscillates between 2800 - 3200. - Strategy Suggestions: Reduce or exit previous long positions; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - Trend Judgement: Range - bound oscillation. - Price Range: M2601 oscillates between 2800 - 3200. - Strategy Suggestions: - Trading Strategy: Reduce or exit previous long positions; consider a covered call strategy by selling 3300 call options. - Basis Strategy: Use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk, and expect the basis to turn positive and strengthen. - Calendar Spread Strategy: Consider a positive spread strategy for M3 - 5 at lows (150, 160). - Hedging Arbitrage Strategy: Narrow the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 at highs (650, 700) [18][20][24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Futures Prices: Includes closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB [26]. - Spreads: Covers various spreads such as futures spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [27]. - Import Costs and Pressing Profits: Lists import costs, daily and weekly changes, and pressing profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as Canadian rapeseed [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: US weather is favorable for crop maturity and harvest in some areas but may affect transportation. China's soybean and rapeseed import forecasts are adjusted. Brazilian weather is favorable for soybean sowing in the south but dry in the central region [28][29]. - Negative Information: Argentina's soybean export declarations reach a seven - year high. Chinese importers have ordered a large amount of Argentine soybeans. Brazilian soybean sowing is accelerating [30]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Includes USDA reports on export inspections, crop growth, quarterly inventory, export sales, and oilseed pressing, as well as the CFTC agricultural product position report [39]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market: - Unilateral Trend: Soybean meal prices dropped due to Argentina's export policy, then rebounded slightly. Rapeseed meal followed soybean meal but was relatively stronger. - Capital Trends: Key profitable seats are mainly hedging seats, and foreign capital seats increased short positions. - Calendar Spread Structure: The 1 - 5 calendar spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal weakened due to the decline of the 01 contract. - Basis Structure: The basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened, and the spot spread between them narrowed [36][38][51]. - Foreign Market: - Foreign Market Trend: The outer and domestic markets diverged. The outer market was affected by Sino - US trade negotiations and Argentina's export policy. - Capital Positions: The net position of CBOT soybean management funds decreased and oscillated around the zero axis [66][72]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - US soybean production area pressing profits are strong due to biodiesel policies. South American production areas' pressing profits are falling. Canadian rapeseed pressing profits are neutral [78]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - Brazilian soybean pressing profits are positive but declining. China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans. Rapeseed imports offer pressing profits, but purchases will be cautious due to import margins [82]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The new - crop balance sheet shows that production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. Demand for crushing will increase, and export is weak. Ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [88]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean imports will decline in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. Soybean meal production will also decline, with 2 - 3 vessels of imports expected [90]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean crushing will remain high in the fourth quarter but will decline. Soybean meal consumption will have limited growth after high - level stocking [93]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at seasonal highs but will decline in the fourth quarter [95].