瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250930

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract continued to decline. Tariff disturbances affected market confidence, and the weak steel market dragged down iron ore prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were operating below the 0 axis. The operation suggestion was to be bearish in a volatile market. [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 780.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.50 yuan; the trading volume was 447,365 lots, a decrease of 26,627 lots. - The spread between the I 1-5 contracts was 21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 of the I contract was -15,349 lots, a decrease of 2,809 lots. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 0 lots, a decrease of 700 lots. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.7 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars. [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 845 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. - The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port was 766 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Macfarlane dry ton - main contract) was 51 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) was 103.45 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Macfarlane powder ore at Qingdao Port was 3.31, unchanged from the previous day. - The estimated import cost was 846 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 34.754 million tons, an increase of 1.506 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 26.037 million tons, a decrease of 1.467 million tons. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 145.5068 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 97.3639 million tons, an increase of 4.2696 million tons. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 105.22 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 25 days, an increase of 1 day. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 400,400 tons, a decrease of 7,700 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.28%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 432,700 tons, an increase of 56,000 tons. The BDI index was 2,220, a decrease of 39. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 25.94 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.9 US dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 84.47%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.88%, an increase of 0.50 percentage points. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 77.37 million tons, a decrease of 2.29 million tons. [2] Option Market - The historical 20-day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 14.27%, a decrease of 2.98 percentage points; the historical 40-day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.00%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options (daily) was 20.16%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options (daily) was 19.61%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From September 22nd to September 28th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume of Mysteel was 34.754 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.506 million tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 28.64 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.912 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 20.28 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.092 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 17.714 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.002 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 8.361 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.179 million tons. - From September 22nd to September 28th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.037 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.467 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.605 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.145 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 10.014 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.886 million tons. [2]