贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's expected rate cut is driving up gold prices, with the market pricing in an 88% probability of a rate cut in October. Global central banks' strong gold - buying trend and geopolitical risks also support gold prices [3]. - Copper prices soared last week due to the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is a short - term over - increase [18]. - Aluminum prices are in a short - term tug - of - war due to mixed demand signals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, while casting aluminum alloy is trading based on fundamentals with a mixed outlook. All three may show short - term positive sentiment [38][39][40]. - Zinc supply is in surplus, and the market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. - The nickel industry is affected by various factors such as government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Prices in different parts of the chain show different trends [80]. - Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to the short - term supply - tight situation and weak demand [95]. - Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile [122]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Price Influencing Factors: Fed rate - cut expectations, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks support gold prices. The market anticipates an 88% chance of a rate cut in October, and 2025 central bank gold purchases may exceed 900 tons [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Copper prices rose significantly last week because of the unexpected halt at Grasberg Copper Mine, and there is short - term over - increase. The recovery time of the mine is longer than previously expected [18]. - Market Data: The latest prices of Shanghai copper futures and spot copper show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [19][24]. Aluminum - Aluminum: Short - term price movements are affected by demand changes and potential positive sentiment from industry policies. The inventory decreased by 21,000 tons on Thursday [38]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, but short - term downward profit space may be limited due to factors such as cost and industry policies [39]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: It is trading based on fundamentals, with mixed supply - demand factors leading to short - term price stability [40]. Zinc - Supply - Demand Situation: Supply is in surplus, with domestic mines having a price advantage and overseas mines increasing production. Demand shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal prices in terms of inventory [64]. - Market Data: Zinc futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [65][73]. Nickel - Industry Situation: The nickel industry is affected by government sanctions, cost increases, and supply - demand dynamics in different segments. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless steel inventory is accumulating [80]. - Market Data: The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures and spot show different degrees of change, and inventory data also change [81]. Tin - Price Outlook: Tin prices are likely to fluctuate due to short - term supply - tightness and weak demand, and the impact of macro factors has decreased [95]. - Market Data: Tin futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [96][101]. Carbonate Lithium - Price Forecast: Carbonate lithium futures prices are expected to fluctuate before the National Day holiday, supported by potential downstream demand growth [110]. - Market Data: Futures and spot prices of carbonate lithium change, and inventory data also show different trends [111][116]. Industrial Silicon - Market Outlook: The industrial silicon market will maintain a "strong expectation, weak reality" pattern, and polysilicon prices are volatile. Attention should be paid to production cuts in the southwest and policy implementation [122]. - Market Data: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices change, and inventory data also show different trends [122].