贵金属日评-20250930

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]