Report Summary Industry Cotton [1] Date September 30, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pre - sale prices of new cotton in the 2025/26 season were in the range of 14,650 - 14,900 yuan/ton (gross weight), with some lower prices in the 14,500 - 14,650 yuan/ton range. The pre - sale basis for the same quality was CF01 + 1000 - 1200, and the high - price quotes were 1200 - 1350, with delivery before the end of September and mid - October [7]. - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Due to the recent decline in cotton prices, the cash flow of enterprises has improved, but the peak season in September was weaker than in previous years. The all - cotton grey fabric market also had a poor performance in September, lacking the characteristics of a peak season in terms of both volume and price. Some factories said that the current demand was mainly for rigid needs, and downstream customers were cautious in stockpiling [8]. - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was slightly adjusted down, the drought coverage in the cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained at a low level, and the overall market maintained a weak and volatile range. In the domestic market, the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% was around 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price was still around 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. As new cotton was gradually put on the market, the pre - sale quotes for the near - month of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase, and the overall quotes were stable with a slight decline compared to last week. The finished product inventory on the demand side was still stable with a slight decline, the market trading volume before the festival decreased, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand in the industry was lower than in the same period of previous years. In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, and after the festival, it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the closing price of CF2601 was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 245,440 and an open interest of 230,258, a decrease of 4,260. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the pre - sale market of new cotton was active [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, but after the festival, it would operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. 2. Industry News - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, last week, rainfall in most cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang affected the effect of defoliants, resulting in more green leaves remaining in the lower part of cotton plants, which postponed large - scale machine - picking. The cotton harvest has started in the northern Xinjiang region, and partial harvesting has begun in the southern Xinjiang region. However, the moisture content of newly harvested seed cotton is relatively high, and many enterprises have postponed the start of purchasing to ensure the quality of purchases. It is expected that large - scale harvesting will start in the whole region in early October. Last week, the price of lint cotton declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased accordingly. The price of machine - picked cotton was 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang was 7.1 - 7.3 yuan/kg, which was lower than that in the early part of the month. The enterprises that have purchased are generally cautious, closely following the market rhythm to control costs and reduce risks [9]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee, etc. The data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][26]
建信期货棉花日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-30 02:09