大越期货白糖早报-20250930

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - September 30, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The overall situation of the sugar market is complex, with both positive and negative factors. The market is affected by global supply - demand changes, domestic consumption, and weather conditions. Near the National Day holiday, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [4][5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, while ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. In July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. This is a bearish factor [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5890, with a basis of 411 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish factor [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons, a neutral factor [5]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, a bearish factor [5]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, with a decrease in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, a bearish factor [5]. - Expectation: Typhoons have recently affected sugarcane - growing areas in southern Guangxi. Strong winds can cause sugarcane to lodge, and heavy rainfall can lead to waterlogging in sugarcane fields. Future attention should be paid to potential production cuts. With the approaching National Day holiday, there are many uncertainties, so it is recommended to hold a light position or be out of the market [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Positive Factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the formula of American cola to use sucrose [6]. - Negative Factors: An increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new global sugar supply, the international sugar price fluctuating around 16 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import pressure [6]. - Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand situation. ISO expects a 231,000 - ton supply gap, StoneX expects a 277 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow expects a 6.2 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro expects a 1.53 - million - ton surplus [4][8][35]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.