大越期货纯碱早报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1293 yuan/ton to 1278 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.16% - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1200 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% - The main basis decreased from - 93 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.38% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1190 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13] - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from a historical low [16] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 89.12% [19] - The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, including 43.01 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [22] - From 2023 to 2025, there are large - scale new production capacity plans for soda ash, with a total planned new capacity of 1570 tons and an actual new capacity of 920 tons [23] 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [26] - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [29] - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline [2] 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 165.15 tons, a decrease of 5.93% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [36] 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash has changed over the years. In 2024E, the supply - demand difference is 157 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 17.59%, a production growth rate of 13.07%, an apparent supply growth rate of 11.69%, and a total demand growth rate of 7.10% [37] 6. Influencing Factors - Likely to be positive: The peak maintenance period is coming this year, and the output is expected to decline [3] - Likely to be negative: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]