燃料油早报-20251009

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil fluctuated, the near-month spread oscillated, the basis strengthened slightly, the EW spread rebounded again and has been in wide fluctuations recently, and the domestic and foreign spreads of FU near-month oscillated. The low-sulfur cracking spread rebounded slightly but is still at a historical low year-on-year. The monthly spread was weakly sorted, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU rebounded slightly to $8 - 9 per ton, and the MF0.5 basis oscillated [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue decreased, floating storage oscillated, ARA residue inventory decreased slightly, EIA residue decreased slightly, Fujairah inventory decreased, and high-sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly. The high-sulfur peak season in the Middle East has passed. Supported by logistics reshaping and Singapore's high-sulfur marine fuel demand, the EW spread has completed its repair. Recently, refinery feedstock purchases have supported the 380 cracking level, with limited short-term downside. It is expected that the 380 cracking spread will maintain an oscillating pattern, and domestic FU is expected to oscillate with a slightly bullish bias in the short term. This week, the LU futures market remained weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas was in line with expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis oscillated at a low level. In the fourth quarter, the domestic and foreign spreads of LU can be widened on dips, and attention should be paid to the quota usage [5]. Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Index | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 403.73 | 407.73 | 412.75 | 393.32 | 390.14 | -3.18 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 438.54 | 442.97 | 447.68 | 430.72 | 428.43 | -2.29 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -4.47 | -4.10 | -4.79 | -5.01 | -4.62 | 0.39 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 686.77 | 696.42 | 705.52 | 675.28 | 669.53 | -5.75 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -248.23 | -253.45 | -257.84 | -244.56 | -241.10 | 3.46 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 24.65 | 26.25 | 26.82 | 24.98 | 25.19 | 0.21 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 34.81 | 35.24 | 34.93 | 37.40 | 38.29 | 0.89 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Index | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 405.15 | 407.32 | 412.16 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 414.65 | 416.26 | 421.41 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 468.56 | 475.67 | 479.10 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 88.66 | 89.89 | 91.66 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.17 | -3.83 | -3.78 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -187.52 | -189.52 | -199.18 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Index | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 406.82 | 407.53 | 413.20 | 410.90 | 400.31 | -10.59 | | FOB VLSFO | 466.07 | 473.88 | 478.80 | 477.90 | 470.02 | -7.88 | | 380 Basis | 1.45 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 0.74 | -0.21 | | High - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 1.0 | | Low - Sulfur Domestic - Foreign Spread | 9.4 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.4 | 0.6 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Index | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2860 | 2887 | 2918 | 2919 | 2867 | -52 | | FU 05 | 2808 | 2830 | 2855 | 2852 | 2804 | -48 | | FU 09 | 2726 | 2738 | 2757 | 2748 | 2722 | -26 | | FU 01 - 05 | 52 | 57 | 63 | 67 | 63 | -4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 82 | 92 | 98 | 104 | 82 | -22 | | FU 09 - 01 | -134 | -149 | -161 | -171 | -145 | 26 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Index | 2025/09/24 | 2025/09/25 | 2025/09/26 | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3367 | 3431 | 3464 | 3469 | 3398 | -71 | | LU 05 | 3347 | 3389 | 3440 | 3423 | 3359 | -64 | | LU 09 | 3319 | 3363 | 3400 | 3390 | 3308 | -82 | | LU 01 - 05 | 20 | 42 | 24 | 46 | 39 | -7 | | LU 05 - 09 | 28 | 26 | 40 | 33 | 51 | 18 | | LU 09 - 01 | -48 | -68 | -64 | -79 | -90 | -11 | [4] Fuel Oil Morning Report Data | Index | 2025/09/29 | 2025/09/30 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 409.64 | 399.48 | -10.16 | | | 418.64 | 407.91 | -10.73 | | | 477.13 | 469.01 | -8.12 | | | 90.86 | 87.92 | -2.94 | | | -3.88 | -3.36 | 0.52 | | | -195.23 | -181.60 | 13.63 | [9]