Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, near - term PX has some maintenance delays and increased load of existing capacity, passing the fastest de - stocking stage. TA processing fees are still low, and short - process benefits may be under pressure. TA has more maintenance and production cut discussions due to low processing fees, but polyester load also drops. Inventory remains low, processing fees have a slight repair, and there is still a far - month inventory build - up expectation. Suggest to focus on opportunities to short the PX - MX spread at high levels and long the far - month TA processing fees at low levels [2]. - For MEG, near - term EG has maintenance returns and new device startups, so supply remains at a relatively high level. Port arrivals increase month - on - month, and ports may gradually enter the inventory build - up stage. The current situation is still okay, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Pay attention to the coal - based cost support below and the opportunity to sell put options near the coal - based cost [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 95.4%, production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory increases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month, with weak benefits. In the future, the rate of increasing production at high finished - product inventory levels of polyester yarn may slow down. The start - up rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot benefits, and inventory pressure is limited. Processing fees are expected to fluctuate [5]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low absolute level, and the price of Thai cup rubber is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/09/24 to 2025/09/30, crude oil decreased by 1.7, naphtha decreased by 23, PX CFR Taiwan decreased by 11, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 55. Naphtha cracking spread decreased by 3.53, PX processing margin increased by 12, PTA processing margin remained unchanged, and polyester gross profit increased by 53. PTA balance load remained unchanged, PTA load increased by 0.3, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1402. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot was 2601(-53) [2]. - Market Outlook: Near - term PX has some maintenance delays and increased load of existing capacity, passing the fastest de - stocking stage. TA processing fees are low, and short - process benefits may be under pressure. TA has more maintenance and production cut discussions, polyester load drops, inventory remains low, processing fees have a slight repair, and there is still a far - month inventory build - up expectation [2]. MEG - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/09/24 to 2025/09/30, Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by 5, MEG outer - market price decreased by 3, MEG inner - market price decreased by 20, MEG East China price decreased by 20, MEG far - month price decreased by 19. MEG coal - based profit decreased by 20, MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) decreased by 18, MEG total load remained unchanged, coal - based MEG load remained unchanged, and MEG port inventory remained unchanged [4]. - Market Outlook: Near - term EG has maintenance returns and new device startups, supply remains high, port arrivals increase month - on - month, ports may enter the inventory build - up stage, the current situation is okay, and the valuation may be slowly compressed [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/09/24 to 2025/09/30, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 15, the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained unchanged, the price of pure polyester yarn remained unchanged, and the price of polyester - cotton yarn remained unchanged. The profit of staple fiber increased by 38, and the profit of pure polyester yarn increased by 15 [4][5]. - Market Outlook: Near - term device operation is stable, production and sales improve month - on - month, inventory is significantly reduced. On the demand side, the start - up rate of polyester yarn is stable, raw material inventory increases, and finished product inventory decreases month - on - month. In the future, the rate of increasing production at high finished - product inventory levels of polyester yarn may slow down, the start - up rate of staple fiber remains high, and inventory pressure is limited [5]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Changes: From 2025/09/24 to 2025/09/30, the price of US - dollar Thai standard decreased by 45, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed decreased by 50, the price of RMB mixed decreased by 270, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 495, and the price of Shanghai 3L decreased by 50 [8]. - Market Outlook: The main contradictions are stable national explicit inventory at a relatively low level and stable Thai cup rubber price with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [8]. Styrene - Price and Margin Changes: From 2025/09/24 to 2025/09/30, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) decreased by 25, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene (East China) decreased by 35, the price of hydrogenated benzene (Shandong) decreased by 210, the price of styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, the price of styrene (Jiangsu) decreased by 125, and the price of styrene (South China) decreased by 130. The domestic profit of EPS increased by 85, and the domestic profit of PS increased by 54 [11].
芳烃橡胶早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-09 00:53