大越期货尿素早报-20251009

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation in the domestic urea market. Although the international urea price is strong, its support for the domestic price is limited. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors are the international price and the marginal change in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The daily production and operating rate are slightly down but still high, and enterprise inventories are accumulating, with inventories increasing in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third - batch export quota has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (unchanged), showing a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 70, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 152.5 million tons (+10.4), showing a bearish signal [4]. Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish signal [4]. Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. The international urea price is strong but has limited support for the domestic price. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR contract is expected to move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Analysis - Bullish factor: The international price is strong [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot delivery product | 1740 | 0 | 01 contract | 1670 | 6 | | Shandong spot | 1740 | 0 | Basis | 70 | - 6 | | Henan spot | 1750 | 0 | UR01 | 1670 | 6 | | FOB China | 3186 | | UR05 | 1717 | 2 | | | | | UR09 | 1742 | 7 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse receipts | 7169 | - 42 | | UR comprehensive inventory | 152.5 million tons | +10.4 | | UR manufacturer inventory | 102.4 million tons | | | UR port inventory | 50.1 million tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]