LPG早报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Future three months, supply to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. With OPEC+增产预期, international propane under pressure, domestic refinery gas facing high pressure, LPG prices expected to be more likely to fall than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - From September 24 to September 30, 2025, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,MB丙烷现货,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 all changed. For example,华南液化气 remained at 4600 on September 24 - 25, then rose to 4650 on September 26, and dropped to 4640 on September 29 - 30 [1] - On October 6 compared to pre - holiday,华东低位 was 4363 (+0),山东 was 4540 (-10),华南 was 4600 (-40), and醚后碳四 was 4550 (+0). Lowest delivery location was华东 with a基差 of 70 (-33), and 10 - 11 month spread was 152 (+4) [1] Price Influencing Factors - On September 30, October CP official price opened lower than expected. Propane and butane were 495 and 475 respectively, down 25 and 15 dollars/ton from last month, possibly due to ongoing long - term contract negotiations and Saudi Arabia's price cut for competitiveness [1] - FEI and CP Nov decreased, 513 (-10) and 478 (-13.4) dollars/ton respectively [1] Market Situation - Externally, Middle East supply in tight balance, US inventory at a record high with high export load. Demand from Japan, South Korea's chemical industry, China's PDH procurement, and India's peak - season stocking, but warm - winter expectation may suppress Japan and South Korea's inventory replenishment. US - to - Far - East shipping freight dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window was closed [1] - Domestically, before the holiday, upstream inventory clearance and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously with small price fluctuations. During the holiday, tourism peak boosted demand, but the weak international market pressured prices. More arrivals and limited holiday transport capacity led to upstream inventory accumulation, with refineries facing high inventory pressure and ports at a neutral inventory level [1] Industry Forecast - Supply to have minor fluctuations in the next three months, combustion demand to rise steadily, PDH plants likely to maintain high operation. On September 26, PDH plant operation rate was 69.5%. Before the holiday, Tianjin Bohua, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Hebei Haiwei had maintenance plans in early October. Lower raw material arrival prices eased PDH profit (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) [1] - Due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profit, procurement of醚后碳四 was inactive [1]