Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints PTA - Cost side: The expectation of supply-demand surplus remains, but it will take time for the surplus pressure to materialize. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The increase in PX due to the restart of short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of some device maintenance is significant. With the compression of PTA profit margins, the postponement of new device launches and clear maintenance plans will further affect PX demand. PXN is expected to show a weak performance, and the cost support is average. - Supply - demand: In October, INEOS and Hengli have maintenance plans, and the restart time of Yisheng Dalian and Hainan is undetermined, so the supply - side operating rate is average. After the sales volume increased in late September, the significant decline in polyester factory inventory may delay the expected reduction in polyester production, and the supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state [5]. MEG - Before the holiday: Driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. - Future outlook: With the successful launch of Yulong Petrochemical, ethylene glycol has entered a new launch cycle. The fundamental structure of ethylene glycol is weak in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to increase by about 70,000 - 80,000 tons in October. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans for devices such as Fulaian and Shenghong. The inventory increase will be more obvious from November to December, and there is also an expectation of new device launches in the far - month, so attention should be paid to the macro - level and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the PTA market showed a pattern of "weak supply and demand, price under pressure", with unstable cost support, loose supply, and the recovery of downstream demand falling short of expectations [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4545, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - Inventory: The inventory of PTA factories is 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. MEG - Fundamental: Before the holiday, driven by the rebound in demand and oil prices, the polyester market was booming, and the inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarn decreased rapidly to about half a month, and prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, polyester prices were stable, and the sales volume of filament yarn was only 10% - 20%. It is expected that the inventory will increase by more than 5 days in 8 days on average. In terms of polyester load, attention should be paid to whether bottle chips will restart in October. Due to the improvement in pre - holiday sales, the inventory of filament yarn has decreased significantly, and the short - term pressure to further reduce production is not large, but the physical inventory still has pressure. From November to December, attention should be paid to demand changes, and filament yarn and chips may still reduce production [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4275, and the basis of the 01 contract is 68, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 404,300 tons, an increase of 22,600 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - Main position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap [12]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, total supply, polyester production, consumption, exports, total demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap [13]. 5. Price The report presents multiple price - related charts, including bottle - chip spot prices, bottle - chip production margins, bottle - chip capacity utilization, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, MEG basis, spot spreads, and the processing margin of p - xylene [15][29][32]. 6. Inventory Analysis The report includes inventory - related charts of various products, such as PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory [41]. 7. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates The report shows the operating rate charts of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms) [52][56]. 8. Profit Analysis The report presents profit - related charts of various products, including PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, polyester fiber short - fiber production margins, and polyester fiber long - fiber production margins [61][62].
PTA、MEG早报-20251009
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-09 01:18