大越期货玻璃早报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47%; the spot price of Shahe Safe large - sized glass was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70%; the main basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.50% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating glass production lines was at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,700 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [29]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.55% compared with the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate was 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - Likely to be Bullish: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [4]. - Likely to be Bearish: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [5].