棉花早报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with both bearish and bullish factors. The main 01 contract is expected to be short - term volatile and weak, accelerating the bottom - probing process [4]. - Bullish factors: Reduced mutual tariffs between China and the US in the early stage, and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, relatively high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the imminent large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" period [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton season: ICAC9 monthly report shows a production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; USDA9 monthly report shows a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2025/26 season: production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,759, with a basis of 1,544 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - Expectation: During the National Day holiday, US cotton slightly declined. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, and the market is quiet. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the market expects an increase in supply. The main 01 contract is expected to be short - term volatile and weak, accelerating the bottom - probing process [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (Year - on - Year Statistics) in September: In 2025/26, global cotton production is 25.622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [9][10]. - Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC): In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents/pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture): In the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.31 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content