沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - 沪镍: The overall trend of the outer market was a slight upward oscillation during the National Day holiday, mainly influenced by the macro - expectation of the Fed's potential interest rate cut in October, which led to the strengthening of metals. Fundamentally, nickel ore prices remained firm, and nickel iron prices were stable, providing strong support at the lower end. Stainless steel inventory reduction was good, showing a strong performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New energy vehicle production and sales data were positive, but the growth of nickel demand might be limited due to technological substitution in the battery segment, with the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreasing month - on - month. In the long - term, the oversupply situation of nickel remained unchanged. The report suggested maintaining an oscillatory mindset for SHFE Nickel 2511, and trying short positions at high - pressure levels if there was a rebound [2]. - Stainless Steel: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, shipping costs were high, and nickel iron prices were stable, resulting in a solid cost line. The inventory reduction of stainless steel slowed down. The report predicted that Stainless Steel 2511 would oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Overview - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE Nickel主力 on September 30 was 120,900 yuan, down 200 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel on October 8 was 15,390 (USD), up 65 from the previous day. Spot prices of various nickel products generally increased slightly, with SMM1 electrolytic nickel at 122,450 yuan, up 450 yuan [11]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of Stainless Steel主力 on September 30 was 12,730 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. Spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory - Nickel: As of September 30, the LME nickel inventory was 232,632 tons (October 8 data), an increase of 1,320 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons. The total inventory increased by 1,080 tons [14]. - Stainless Steel: On September 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 588,200 tons, in Foshan was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series increased by 5,400 tons month - on - month. As of September 30, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 86,969 tons, a decrease of 179 tons [18][19]. Price of Raw Materials - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on September 30 compared with the previous day. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) and low - nickel (below 2) prices were stable at 954.5 yuan per nickel point and 3,450 yuan per ton respectively [21]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,164 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,511 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,854 yuan [23]. Nickel Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 123,812 yuan per ton [26].