大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251009

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are neutral, with the expected trend of PE being volatile today. The PP fundamentals are also neutral, and the PP is expected to fluctuate today [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with limited support for the polyolefin cost side. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, with overall weak demand support. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,160 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 7, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (-8), which is neutral [4] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the agricultural film operation rate slightly increases but remains weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is cost and demand, driven by domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The new production capacity of Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, with sufficient supply. The demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations, and the overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -72, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, showing a bearish trend [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6] - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the new production capacity is put into operation, the average downstream operation rate remains stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6] - Leverage and Risks: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the PE production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [14] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the PP production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate generally showed an upward trend [16]