大越期货生猪期货早报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a potential bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. - The Chinese government's decision to impose additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. However, the domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment shows some improvement, but consumer willingness has weakened after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decline in supply and demand, with pig prices being weak in the short - term and potentially bottoming out and rebounding in the medium - term [10]. - Basis: The national average spot price is 12,180 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 645 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - Market Trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: In the near future, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the festivals, the supply and demand of pigs have decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The room for further price decline may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The losses in pig farming profits have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - After the National Day, the pig spot price has remained stable, and the futures market has generally returned to a range - bound oscillation pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish Factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures and Spot Prices: The report provides the prices of pig futures (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from September 22 to September 30 [14]. - Inventory Data: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the report, only that the main position is net short and short positions are increasing [10].