大越期货豆粕早报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides viewpoints and strategies for both soybeans and soybean meal. The overall outlook for soybean meal is that it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. The domestic soybean A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Key factors influencing these trends include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation in the market [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in October, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting clarity on US soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [13] Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot price summary: Data from September 22 to September 30 show the prices and trading volumes of soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot markets, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [15][17] - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32] - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina: Show the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different time periods, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [42] - Other data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans reached a high in September and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills has declined from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continues to increase. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the post - holiday stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean - meal output in July increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][50][52] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content