沪锌期货早报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2511 is expected to be an oscillating rebound. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillating manner, with a shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more long - position reductions. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average, and the moving average support is weak. The short - term indicator KDJ is declining and operating in the weak area. The trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is rising, the short - position strength is falling, and the dominance of short - position strength is narrowing [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc is 21,880 yuan/ton, with a basis of +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On October 8, LME zinc inventory increased by 50 tons to 38,250 tons compared to the previous day. On September 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,043 tons to 57,221 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On September 30, the trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 254,693 lots, and the open interest was 234,904 lots, with a decrease of 16,120 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On September 30, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 16,540 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 21,880 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,004 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,412 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,130 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,835 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 18 to September 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 148,300 tons to 128,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to September 22 and 7,000 tons compared to September 25 [5]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On September 29, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 3,500 to 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.8 Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on September 30, among the top 20 futures companies in terms of trading volume, the total trading volume was 256,677 lots, a decrease of 20,576 lots compared to the previous day; the total long - position volume was 86,076 lots, a decrease of 10,322 lots; the total short - position volume was 88,608 lots, a decrease of 7,283 lots [17].