建信期货宏观市场月报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight gold and blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds and growth stocks, and underweight credit bonds, crude oil, and currency [5][60] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From mid - January to March 2025, due to Trump's aggressive reforms, the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds chased overseas assets. In early April, Trump's high - tariff measures triggered a global financial tsunami. After that, the Fed's rate - cut process benefits global stocks and precious metals, while the bond yields of various countries are suppressed. The commodity market remains stable overall but shows significant differentiation. Looking forward, the macro - environment is still relatively favorable for precious metals and stocks, slightly favorable for industrial commodities, but unfavorable for bonds. It is recommended to increase bond allocation while being bullish on stocks [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 1 - 9 Months Macro - market Review - From November 2024 to mid - January 2025, the "Trump trade" made the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and US stocks rise, while overseas assets were under pressure. From mid - January to March, the US dollar and US Treasury yields weakened, and funds flowed overseas. In early April, Trump's tariff measures caused a global financial shock. After that, the international trade situation eased, and the Fed's rate - cut benefited global stocks and precious metals. The commodity market was stable with differentiation [7] 3.2 Macro - environment Review 3.2.1 China's Domestic Demand Continues to Weaken - In August 2025, China's domestic demand weakened due to the diminishing effect of fiscal and monetary stimulus and international trade disputes. The full - year economic growth target of about 5% is expected to be achieved. In terms of investment, from January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, especially in real estate. Consumption growth also declined. Industrial output growth slowed, and there was a large deflationary pressure. The real - estate market showed supply - demand deterioration and price decline, but the overall situation was slightly better than in Q3 2024. Inflation showed a decline in overall CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline. Exports were affected by the US and other factors, but still showed resilience. Fiscal expenditure showed a marginal weakening, and financial data showed that new social financing was mainly supported by fiscal means. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and new policy - based financial tools were launched [8][10][15] 3.2.2 US Economic Recovery but Weak Employment - In the first half of 2025, the US economy fluctuated due to Trump's reforms. In the second half, the growth momentum recovered. Employment data showed a shortage of new non - farm jobs, a low growth rate of salaries, and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, but no recession risk. Inflation showed a stable recovery, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed different trends [27][29][33] 3.2.3 The Fed Restarts the Rate - cut Process - On September 16 - 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP. The decision was due to the weakening of US economic growth momentum, the slowdown of employment growth, and the balance between employment and inflation risks. The Fed's economic outlook is more optimistic, and it is expected to cut interest rates two more times in 2025 and less frequently in 2026 and 2027. The Fed's rate - cut is a risk - management measure, and the second - stage rate - cut process will be step - by - step [37][40][45] 3.3 Asset Market Analysis - China's Treasury yields showed a downward - rebound - downward - rebound trend. It is expected to run weakly in the second half of 2025. US Treasury yields were high - fluctuating, and it is predicted to continue high - running. The US dollar index is expected to be weak first and then strong. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be volatile and slightly strong. Global stock indices have risen, and the A - share market is expected to be strong, but the contradiction between high risk - appetite and weak corporate profits is increasing. The commodity market is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock [47][49][54] 3.4 Medium - term Asset Allocation - From January to September 2025, stocks rose, bonds fell, and commodities were under pressure. The international trade situation and domestic policies affected asset performance. It is recommended to underweight currency, moderately allocate interest - rate bonds, underweight credit bonds, overweight blue - chip stocks, moderately allocate growth stocks, underweight crude oil, and overweight gold [58][60]