Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate and related lithium compounds. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shows a state of capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,740 - 73,860 yuan/ton for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that the supply of lithium carbonate is relatively high, while the demand growth is not strong enough, and the cost structure of different production methods also affects the production enthusiasm of enterprises [8][9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in September will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,407 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.03%, with a production loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 78,268 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.58%, with a production loss of 7,776 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 750 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Lithium Ore Supply - Price: The price of 6% lithium spodumene is 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value, with a change rate of 0.00%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.07% [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows different situations in different months. In general, the demand is relatively large, and the production and import volume together meet the demand, but there are still some months with a supply - demand gap [27]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) shows different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 356,750 tons in a certain period, a month - on - month increase of 12.75% [18]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also varies by month. In some months, there is a surplus, while in others, there is a shortage. For example, in August 2025, the supply - demand balance was 2,695 tons, indicating a surplus [35]. 3.4 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and Export: The production and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The export volume in different months shows an upward or downward trend, and the production also fluctuates. For example, the production in August 2025 was 21,820 tons [38][40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months, with some months having a surplus and others having a shortage [40]. 3.5 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different Production Methods: The cost - profit situations of different lithium compound production methods (such as purchased lithium spodumene, purchased lithium mica, recycling) are different. Some production methods are in a loss state, while others have certain profit margins. For example, the production from purchased lithium spodumene has a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton [9][43]. - Purification and Transformation: The profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate also change over time, which is affected by factors such as raw material prices and product prices [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The lithium carbonate inventory includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends in different periods, which is affected by production and demand [50]. 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery: The production, sales, and export of lithium batteries show different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries in a certain period was 62,500 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.81% [18][54]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles also change over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend in recent years [78][79]. - Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors and ternary materials are also analyzed in the report. The production of ternary precursors in a certain period was 76,159 tons, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price, production, and cost - profit of lithium iron phosphate and related products are also analyzed in the report. The production of lithium iron phosphate in a certain period shows an upward trend [70][73].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251009
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-10-09 02:11