Yongan Futures(SH:600927) Yong An Qi Huo·2025-10-09 02:43Core Insights - The report highlights the expected impact of the Gaza ceasefire on market prices, predicting a significant downward trend, although the resumption of shipping through the Red Sea may take 2-3 months [3][26] - The report notes potential geopolitical risks between the US and Iran that could affect market dynamics [26] - There are multiple upward drivers anticipated from October to December, suggesting a complex market outlook [26] Market Data Summary - Recent futures prices show a decline, with EC2510 at 1110.6 (-0.39%), EC2512 at 1731.9 (-1.39%), and EC2602 at 1642.8 (-1.45%) [25] - The SCF index for the European line has decreased by 6.60% from the previous period, indicating a significant drop in shipping rates [25] - The CCFI and NCFI indices also reflect downward trends, with decreases of 4.69% and 8.85% respectively [25] Pricing Trends - The average price for the European line in weeks 40-41 was reported at 1450 USD, with specific rates for different shipping companies ranging from 1300 to 1600 USD [26] - A price increase announcement for week 42 suggests a target range of 1800-2000 USD, aimed more at stabilizing prices rather than actual increases [26] - The report indicates that the lowest price for YML was recorded at 1300 USD, marking a significant low for the year [26] Shipping Index Trends - The SCFI index shows a seasonal trend with fluctuations in shipping rates over the past years, indicating a complex pricing environment [38] - The TCI index for various routes also reflects seasonal variations, suggesting that shipping costs are influenced by both demand and geopolitical factors [39][40]