2025-10-09 02:00Investment Rating - The report suggests a "long-term" and "steady" investment outlook for the A-share market, indicating favorable conditions for sustained growth [8]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a significant upward trend since last September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 40% [2]. - Historical analysis of previous long-term upward phases in the A-share market reveals that these phases typically last 2-3 years, characterized by substantial overall gains and increased trading volumes driven by new capital inflows [2][3]. - The current market rally is supported by macroeconomic improvements and favorable liquidity conditions, alongside key industry trends such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Upward Phases - The report reviews past upward phases in the A-share market, noting that each phase began from significant market lows and was marked by investor pessimism, followed by a gradual increase in market volatility and investor behavior divergence [2][3]. - Key historical phases include 2005-2007, 2013-2015, and 2019-2021, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and driving factors [2][5]. Driving Factors - The report identifies macroeconomic recovery and liquidity improvements as primary drivers of the current market rally, with a focus on the growth of key industries [3][6]. - The ongoing capital market reforms and government policies are expected to enhance market vitality and support long-term growth [4][8]. Earnings and Valuation - The report anticipates a turnaround in earnings growth for A-share companies, projecting a 3.5% overall growth rate for the year, with non-financial sectors expected to exceed 8% growth [3][10]. - Current valuations of the A-share market remain reasonable, with the CSI 300 index trading at a PE ratio of approximately 14 times, which is relatively low compared to other global markets [10][11]. Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market phase is characterized by a clear focus on growth styles, particularly in technology and innovative sectors, with a rotation among leading industries [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and fundamental improvements in driving market performance, suggesting that the current rally may have more sustainable characteristics compared to previous phases [8][9].