《农产品》日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - In the palm oil market, MPOA estimates Malaysia's September 2025 palm oil production at 1.81 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Analysts predict an average production of 1.79 million tons, a 3.3% decrease. Exports are estimated at 1.427 million tons, a 7.7% increase, and inventory at 2.15 million tons, a 2.5% decrease. Indonesia's plan to implement B50 bio - diesel may raise the palm oil price after the holiday. In the soybean oil market, due to the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations and sufficient US soybean supply, CBOT soybean prices are under pressure, and US soybean oil may follow suit [1]. Meal Products - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated and strengthened slightly. Although there are expectations of negotiations, China has not resumed US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December, supporting Brazilian premiums. China's soybean supply is sufficient in Q4 2025 but may be short in Q1 2026. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the spot price is expected to remain weak. The M2601 contract is expected to be cautiously bullish in the 2900 - 2950 range [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, Brazil's central - southern sugar production increased by 15.72% year - on - year to 3.62 million tons. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, the new sugar season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and after the holiday stocking, the market is quiet. Considering natural disasters, the domestic sugar price is in a relatively undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, and is expected to remain range - bound between 5400 - 5600 [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - During the National Day holiday, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price decreased with the supply. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - October, the price is under pressure due to good harvest expectations and lower production costs. The demand is currently weak, but feed and processing enterprises may replenish inventory seasonally. Corn is expected to remain weak during the concentrated listing period [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - During the National Day holiday, pig prices dropped significantly, with spot prices below 6 yuan per catty. The pressure on supply will continue to be released in the fourth quarter due to increased出栏 volume and weight gain. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results. The spot price is expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The trading strategy for the futures market is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton prices are oscillating weakly near a six - month low due to the lack of key crop data after the US government shutdown. Domestically, the supply increase and weak demand have put downward pressure on cotton prices. During the National Day holiday, the purchase price of cottonseed stabilized, but the procurement of lint by textile enterprises almost stopped. Overall, the cotton price is expected to remain bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market is expected to have relatively high supply and weak demand. The egg price is likely to continue to decline due to high inventory levels, lack of strong demand after the holidays, and cautious market sentiment [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: From September 29 to 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil dropped from 8400 to 8380 (- 0.24%), the futures price of Y2601 decreased from 8150 to 8140 (- 0.12%), and the basis of Y2601 fell from 250 to 240 (- 4.00%). For palm oil, the spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree dropped from 9110 to 9060 (- 0.55%), the futures price of P2601 decreased from 9234 to 9228 (- 0.06%), and the basis of P2601 fell from - 124 to - 168 (- 35.48%). The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil rose from 10200 to 10250 (0.49%), the futures price of OI601 decreased from 10093 to 10044 (- 0.49%), and the basis of OI601 increased from 107 to 206 (92.52%) [1]. - Inventory and Trade: Palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decrease in September. The import cost and profit of palm oil in Guangzhou Port changed, with the cost increasing by 1.09% and the profit decreasing by 23.89% [1]. Meal Products - Price Changes: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained at 2940, the futures price of M2601 decreased from 2933 to 2928 (- 0.17%), and the basis of M2601 increased from 7 to 12 (71.43%). The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained at 2500, the futures price of RM2601 increased from 2416 to 2421 (0.21%), and the basis of RM2601 decreased from 84 to 79 (- 5.95%) [2]. - Supply and Demand: China has not resumed US soybean purchases, and Brazil's new soybean supply is expected to increase. There are gaps in China's ship orders for November and December [2]. Sugar - Price Changes: The futures price of SR2601 increased from 5479 to 5493 (0.26%), and SR2605 increased from 5437 to 5458 (0.39%). The ICE raw sugar futures price decreased from 16.64 to 16.32 (- 1.92%). The spot price in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged [4]. - Industry Data: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 12.87% respectively. The cumulative national sugar sales rate increased by 0.74%, and the cumulative Guangxi sugar sales rate increased by 0.70%. The national industrial sugar inventory increased by 5.24%, and the Guangxi industrial sugar inventory decreased by 2.22% [4]. Corn and Corn Starch - Price Changes: The futures price of C2511 decreased from 2159 to 2143 (- 0.74%), the Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price decreased from 2280 to 2240 (- 1.75%), and the basis decreased from 121 to 97 (- 19.83%). The futures price of CS2511 decreased from 2483 to 2468 (- 0.60%), and the basis increased from 77 to 92 (19.48%) [5]. - Trade and Inventory: The north - south corn trade profit increased by 47.62%, and the import profit increased by 0.71%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning increased by 35.73% [5]. Livestock (Pigs) - Price Changes: The futures price of LH2511 increased from 12295 to 12355 (0.49%), and LH2601 increased from 12785 to 12825 (0.31%). The spot price in Henan decreased from 12550 to 12450, in Shandong from 12850 to 12700, and in Sichuan from 12050 to 11850 [9]. - Industry Data: The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses decreased by 0.79%, and the number of sows in stock decreased by 0.10% [9]. Cotton - Price Changes: The futures price of CF2605 decreased from 13360 to 13245 (- 0.86%), and CF2601 decreased from 13350 to 13215 (- 1.01%). The ICE US cotton futures price increased from 64.44 to 64.94 (0.78%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased from 14942 to 14860 (- 0.55%) [11]. - Industry Data: Commercial cotton inventory decreased by 20.6%, industrial inventory decreased by 3.4%, and imports increased by 40%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric decreased, and the export of textile yarn, fabric, and clothing showed different trends [11]. Eggs - Price Changes: The futures price of JD11 increased from 3016 to 3038 (0.73%), and JD01 increased from 3352 to 3360 (0.24%). The egg - producing area price decreased from 3.44 to 3.42 (- 0.64%), and the basis decreased from 425 to 381 (- 10.38%) [14]. - Industry Data: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled chickens decreased from 4.67 to 4.64 (- 0.64%), and the egg - feed ratio increased from 2.64 to 2.85 (7.95%). The breeding profit increased from - 9.11 to 3.20 (135.13%) [14].