Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was estimated at 1.81 million tons, down 2.35% month - on - month. Indonesia plans to implement B50 next year, which may lift the palm oil price after the holiday [1]. - Soybean oil: Sino - US negotiation issues have no substantial progress, and there is no news of China purchasing US soybeans. The abundant supply of US soybeans has pressured the CBOT soybean price, and US soybean oil may follow the downward trend of raw material prices [1]. Meal - During the National Day holiday, US soybeans fluctuated. China has not lifted the ban on US soybean purchases. Brazil's new soybean planting is progressing smoothly, suppressing the upside of US soybeans. In Q4 2025, China's soybean supply is sufficient, but there is a supply gap expected in Q1 2026, which may support the price of the 2601 contract. The uncertainty lies in Sino - US trade policies [2]. Sugar - Internationally, in the first half of September, sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region increased by 15.72% year - on - year. The raw sugar price has limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. Domestically, new sugar has been listed, and the sugar price is in the undervalued area, with limited room for further decline, expected to remain range - bound [4]. Corn - During the National Day, new - season corn harvest increased, and the spot price declined. With the concentrated listing of corn in mid - to - late October, the price is under pressure. The demand is weak currently, but there may be seasonal restocking needs later. Corn will maintain a weak trend [5]. Pork - During the National Day, the pig price dropped significantly, but there were signs of stabilization at the end of the holiday. In the short term, the spot price may stabilize, but in the long term, the supply pressure will continue, and the policy to reduce production capacity needs time to take effect. The futures operation is to short on rallies [9]. Cotton - US cotton is in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestically, due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand, the cotton price is weak. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized, and the overall cotton price is expected to be bearish [11]. Eggs - In October, the egg market will be in a pattern of relatively high supply and temporarily weak demand. The egg price will continue to decline in a volatile manner [15]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - Price Changes: On September 30, the spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil was 8380 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8140 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 9060 yuan/ton, down 0.55%, and the futures price of P2601 was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The spot price of Jiangsu third - grade rapeseed oil was 10250 yuan/ton, up 0.49%, and the futures price of OI601 was 10044 yuan/ton, down 0.49% [1]. - Spread Changes: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil was 244, up 2.52%; the 01 - 05 spread of palm oil was 192, up 10.34%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed oil was 523, up 3.98% [1]. Meal - Price Changes: The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2601 was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [2]. - Spread Changes: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 190, unchanged; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 104, up 11.83% [2]. Sugar - Futures Market: The price of sugar 2601 was 5493 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5458 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.32 cents/pound, down 1.92% [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5810 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. - Industry Data: Nationally, the cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales volume was 10 million tons, up 12.87%. In Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, up 4.59%; the monthly sales volume was 260,200 tons, down 27.14% [4]. Corn - Price Changes: The price of corn 2511 was 2143 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; the Pingcang price at Jinzhou Port was 2240 yuan/ton, down 1.75%. The price of corn starch 2511 was 2468 yuan/ton, down 0.60% [5]. - Profit and Spread: The north - south trade profit was 124 yuan/ton, up 47.62%; the import profit was 496 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The 11 - 3 spread of corn was - 1, down 110.00%; the 11 - 3 spread of corn starch was 7, down 66.67% [5]. Pork - Futures Market: The price of the main contract for live pigs was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; the price of the 2601 contract was 12825 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The 11 - 1 spread was - 470, up 4.08% [9]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the spot price in Shandong was 12700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton [9]. Cotton - Futures Market: The price of cotton 2605 was 13245 yuan/ton, down 0.86%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The ICE US cotton main contract was 64.94 cents/pound, up 0.78% [11]. - Spot Market: The arrival price of Xinjiang 3128B was 14860 yuan/ton, down 0.55%; the CC Index 3128B was 14759 yuan/ton, up 0.01% [11]. - Industry Data: The commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, down 20.6%; the industrial inventory was 0.8621 million tons, down 3.4%. The import volume was 70,000 tons, up 40% [11]. Eggs - Price Changes: The price of the 11 - contract for eggs was 3038 yuan/500KG, up 0.73%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3360 yuan/500KG, up 0.24%. The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.60 yuan/feather, unchanged; the culled hen price was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.64% [14]. - Profit and Ratio: The egg - feed ratio was 2.85, up 7.95%; the breeding profit was 3.20 yuan/feather, up 135.13% [14].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20251009
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-10-09 03:23