生猪异动点评：双节出栏激增，现货承压

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - After the double festivals, the hog futures market declined significantly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 11,595 yuan/ton, a drop of 5.88% [1]. - In the short - term, the pressure from the double - festival hog sales will gradually ease, and prices are expected to stabilize as the supply pressure from individual farmers decreases. However, in the medium - to - long - term, hog supply pressure will continue to be released, and hog prices are not optimistic. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time to show results, and spot prices are expected to face pressure until the first half of next year. The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies in the futures market and conduct reverse spreads for LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 [7]. 3) Summary by Directory Driving Factor 1: Increased Hog Sales during Double Festivals and Released Supply Pressure - Before the double festivals, due to high expectations for demand, individual farmers and secondary fattening households held back hogs. By the end of September, the average hog slaughter weight reached a record high for the same period. As of the week of September 25, the average slaughter weight was 128.55 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.87 kg (2.28%). Group - farmed hogs had an average weight of 123.99 kg, while individual - farmed hogs reached 143.92 kg. After the festivals, with weakening demand, individual farmers panicked and sold more heavy hogs, leading to a sharp increase in supply and downward pressure on spot prices [2]. Driving Factor 2: Continuous Recovery of Hog Supply and Pessimistic Market Outlook - China currently has an oversupply of breeding sows, with rapidly improving production efficiency. However, the process of reducing the sow population is slow, and hog sales are expected to keep growing in the next six months. As of the end of August, the national breeding sow population was 40.38 million, equivalent to 103.5% of the normal level, indicating a slow capacity reduction. The government aims to reduce the capacity by 1 million, but due to low industry costs and previous long - term profitability, the amount of culled sows is small, and capacity reduction is difficult without strict policies [6]. Market Outlook - During the National Day holiday, hog prices dropped sharply, with spot prices falling below 6 yuan/jin. Individual farmers increased sales, but weak demand continued to suppress prices. In the short - term, prices are expected to stabilize as the supply pressure eases. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure will persist in the fourth quarter, and hog prices are not expected to improve. Policy - driven capacity reduction will take time, and spot prices are likely to face pressure until the first half of next year [7].