油脂油料产业日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: International market - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures continue to rise with short - term pressure near previous highs, waiting for Wednesday's MPOB report. Inventory estimates for end - September range from 2.05 to 2.34 million tons. Depending on the report and export data, it will choose a new direction. Domestic market - Dalian palm oil futures had a gap - up opening after the holiday, with a chance to continue rising. It should be watched whether it can break through previous highs. If not, there is a risk of a pull - back and filling the gap. The view of near - term strength and long - term weakness is maintained [3]. - Soybean Oil: After the long holiday, traders need to replenish stocks, which boosts the Dalian soybean oil market. However, domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and imports from October to December are large. Factory inventories are unlikely to decrease rapidly, and some factories are exporting due to potential over - stock. The upside of Dalian soybean oil is limited. The January contract is near the daily middle - rail at 8,310 yuan. If it fails to break through, it may fall; if it breaks through, the upper target is the daily upper - rail at 8,520 yuan, but continuous rise is unlikely [4]. - Bean Meal: The Dalian bean meal 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 2,930 - 2,960 yuan, affected by Sino - US trade negotiation expectations and ample supply. Spot prices are in the 2,900 - 3,100 yuan/ton range. After the holiday, oil mills resume production, but feed enterprises' high inventory and slow inventory reduction of oil mills limit the spot price rebound [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price and Spread - Palm Oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,570 yuan/ton with a 3.71% increase; 05 is at 9,360 yuan/ton with a 3.59% increase; 09 is at 8,916 yuan/ton with a 3.29% increase. BMD palm oil is at 4,571 ringgit/ton with a 0.57% increase. The POGO spread is at 513.167 dollars/ton with a decrease of 1.168 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Soybean Oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,332 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase; 05 is at 8,074 yuan/ton with a 0.62% increase; 09 is at 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase. CBOT soybean oil is at 51.34 cents/pound with a 1.74% increase. The domestic first - grade soybean - 24 - degree palm oil spread is - 820 yuan/ton with a decrease of 140 yuan/ton [14]. - Inter - month and Inter - variety Spreads: For palm oil, P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 404 yuan/ton with a 32 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 596 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan decrease. For soybean oil, Y 1 - 5 is 244 yuan/ton with no change; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with no change; Y 9 - 1 is - 312 yuan/ton with no change. Y - P spreads and Y/M, OI/RM spreads are also provided [5]. 3.2. Oilseed Futures Price - Bean Meal: Bean meal 01 closes at 2,939 with an 11 - point increase and a 0.38% rise; 05 closes at 2,755 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.62% rise; 09 closes at 2,863 with a 16 - point increase and a 0.56% rise [19]. - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2,435 with a 14 - point increase and a 0.58% rise; 05 closes at 2,334 with a 17 - point increase and a 0.73% rise; 09 closes at 2,415 with a 12 - point increase and a 0.5% rise [19]. - CBOT Yellow Soybean: Closes at 1,029.75 with no change [19]. - Offshore RMB: Closes at 7.1527 with a 0.0096 increase and a 0.13% rise [19]. 3.3. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - Bean Meal Spreads: M01 - 05 is 184 with a 6 - point decrease; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a 1 - point increase; M09 - 01 is - 76 with a 5 - point increase [20][22]. - Rapeseed Meal Spreads: RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 3 - point decrease; RM05 - 09 is - 81 with a 5 - point increase; RM09 - 01 is - 20 with a 2 - point decrease [20][22]. - Spot Spreads: The spot spread between bean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 with a 10 - point increase; the futures spread is 504 with a 3 - point decrease [22].