油脂异动点评：MPOB报告或显示9月马来西亚棕榈油库存回落，盘面于节后补涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market rose significantly, with the P2601 contract closing up 4.13% at 9570 points, hitting an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. - The fundamental situation shows a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. Malaysian palm oil inventory in September may decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production [2]. - The aggressive B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports, and rising crude oil prices increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel raw material. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is crucial. If the MPOB report in September meets market expectations, with an early production inflection point and a decline in inventory, the post - market trend of palm oil needs to be re - evaluated. In the fourth quarter, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On the first trading day after the National Day holiday, the palm oil futures market had a significant increase. The P2601 contract of palm oil closed up 4.13% at 9570 points, with an intraday high of 9580 points [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Analysis - Production: Multiple surveys show a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. The industry survey estimates production at 179.4 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease. MPOA estimates production at 181 million tons, a 2.35% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate production at 179 million tons and 178 million tons respectively, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. - Exports: The industry survey estimates exports at 142.7 million tons, a 7.7% month - on - month increase. Reuters and Bloomberg both estimate exports at 143 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Different institutions have different estimates of consumption. The industry survey estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 23.5% month - on - month increase. Reuters estimates consumption at 47.3 million tons, a 24.5% month - on - month increase. Bloomberg estimates consumption at 48.5 million tons, a 32.9% month - on - month increase [2][5]. - Inventory: The industry survey estimates that inventory will drop to 214.6 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease. Reuters and Bloomberg estimate inventory at 215 million tons and 216 million tons respectively [2]. 3.3 Biodiesel Policy Impact - Indonesia: Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program next year. Using B50 biodiesel requires 2010 thousand liters of palm oil to be mixed with diesel annually, compared to 1560 thousand liters for B40 biodiesel. This may reduce Indonesia's palm oil exports [6]. - Brazil: The plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 15% to 16% in March 2026 may be postponed due to incomplete technical feasibility studies. This will mainly affect the biodiesel industry using soybean oil as a raw material [7]. 3.4 Market Outlook - In the short term, the incremental demand for biodiesel supports the market performance. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental situation is more important. If the MPOB report in September meets expectations, with a decline in production and inventory, and as the market enters the traditional seasonal production - reduction period and demand fades, palm oil may show a weak and volatile pattern in the fourth quarter [9].