纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the glass market, in October, the supply of glass production lines remains stable, but with the approaching of the peak season for natural gas demand and the expected increase in natural gas prices, the cold - repair willingness of natural gas - fueled production lines may strengthen, and the number of cold - repair production lines is expected to increase compared to September. The demand showed a short - term recovery during the National Day, but it's hard to sustain. After the holiday, the market may shift from supply - demand trading to policy - based trading, and the price is likely to oscillate upwards. It is recommended to buy glass futures at low prices in the short term [2]. - For the soda ash market, the second - phase partial devices of Yuanxing Energy are expected to be put into production, intensifying the supply - surplus situation. In October, it's the off - season for downstream demand, and the supply continues to increase, which may lead to a rise in enterprise inventory and price pressure. The demand recovery during the National Day is hard to sustain, and the growth of heavy - soda demand in the photovoltaic industry is limited. The price may continue to decline, but there is also a possibility of enterprise production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures at low prices in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1,250 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the position of the main contract is 1,317,458 lots, up 67,092 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 228,442 lots, up 11,845 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 7,333 tons, up 981 tons; the basis is - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 94 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1,218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the position of the main contract is 1,151,489 lots, up 160,754 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 115,648 lots, down 31,026 lots; the exchange warehouse receipt is 0 tons; the basis is - 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the spread between January and May contracts is - 120 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy - soda is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy - soda is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China light - soda is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light - soda is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1,156 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets is 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate is 89.12%, up 3.59 percentage points; the enterprise inventory is 165.98 tons, up 5.99 tons [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate is 76.01%, unchanged; the in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year, up 0.05 million tons; the number of in - production lines is 225, unchanged; the enterprise inventory is 5,935,500 heavy - boxes, down 155,300 heavy - boxes [2]. 下游情况 - Real estate: The cumulative new - construction area is 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4,595.01 million square meters; the cumulative completion area is 27,693.54 million square meters, up 2,659.54 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Soda ash: Multiple soda ash production devices have changes in operation status, including production reduction, load increase, and resumption of production. For example, Henan Haohua Junhua's device reduces production due to synthetic ammonia problems; Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year device resumes production [2]. - Glass: In October, the glass production lines remain stable. With the approaching of the natural gas demand peak season, the cold - repair willingness of natural gas - fueled production lines may increase, and the implementation of the industry's backward - capacity governance policy may limit capacity release [2].