瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The precious metals market is strongly rising due to the resonance of geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, the macro - data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, and the surge in ETF investment demand. The London spot gold price remains above $4000 per ounce. The Fed's officials' recent remarks are generally cautious, and the market has largely priced in the interest - rate cut expectation. The US government shutdown intensifies concerns about the macro - economic downturn and strengthens the safe - haven attribute of precious metals. Geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices, and short - term dip - buying demand is expected to remain strong. However, there are risks of accelerated gold price corrections. It is recommended to adopt a dip - buying strategy with strict stop - loss [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 914.32 yuan/gram, up 39.92; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11169 yuan/kg, up 251 [3]. - Positions: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold is 251137 lots, down 5739; that of Shanghai silver is 477441 lots, up 1197. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 157017 lots, down 9396; that of Shanghai silver is 98301 lots, down 7580 [3]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 70728 kg, unchanged; that of silver is 1186846 kg, down 5436 [3]. 3.2现货市场 - Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 910.89 yuan/gram, up 37.94; the silver spot price is 11107 yuan/kg, up 194 [3]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 3.43 yuan/gram, down 1.98; that of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 62 yuan/kg, down 57 [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: The gold ETF holding is 1014.58 tons, up 1.43; the silver ETF holding is 15415.53 tons, up 19.76 [3]. - Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position (weekly) is 266749 contracts, up 339; the silver CTFC non - commercial net position (weekly) is 52276 contracts, up 738 [3]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83; the total annual global demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [3]. 3.4 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.5%, up 0.12; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.56%, up 0.11 [3]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 22.88%, up 1.76; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 22.88%, up 1.77 [3]. 3.5 Industry News - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be about 3% in the medium term, lower than 3.7% before the COVID - 19 pandemic. By 2029, global public debt will exceed 100% of GDP. The Fed may need to cut interest rates further [3]. - On October 8, the US Senate voted on the Republican - version short - term appropriation bill and the Democratic alternative passed by the House of Representatives, both of which failed, and the US federal government continues to shut down [3]. - US President Trump is negotiating a cease - fire agreement in Gaza, which is close to being reached [3]. - The US Congressional Budget Office states that the US federal budget deficit in fiscal year 2025 is $1.8 trillion, $800 million less than in 2024 [3]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.6%. In December, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 0.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.1% [3].