Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core View of the Report - Considering the poor sales of apples in the distribution areas, the spot price remains weakly stable. Affected by rainfall, the quality in most production areas has declined, and the proportion of high - quality fruits is expected to decrease. The prices of high - quality and poor - quality fruits may show a significant divergence in the future. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8633 yuan/ton, with a net increase of 770; the main contract position is 6580 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 114,672 hands, with an increase of 12,291 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.77 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.28 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 12.18 million tons, with a decrease of 4.14 million tons; the weekly storage capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples are 0.03 and 0 respectively, with a decrease of 0.01 for Shandong; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, with an increase of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export amount is 69.739 million US dollars, with a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons are 7.89 yuan/kg, 4.01 yuan/kg, and 5.6 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of tangerines and watermelons have decreased by 0.44 yuan/kg and 0.08 yuan/kg respectively, while the price of bananas has increased by 0.18 yuan/kg. The daily average number of incoming trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 15, 20, and 31 respectively, with changes of - 1.2, - 0.2, and - 0.8 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are 25.75% and 25.76% respectively, with decreases of 0.36% and 0.35% respectively [2] Industry News - Affected by rainy weather, the quality of late - Fuji apples in the production areas has declined significantly, with problems such as water - cracking in Shaanxi and pit - rust in Shandong being prominent. In Shandong Mengyin, it is difficult for apples to color, and there are not many red late - Fuji apples. Due to poor sales during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, most purchasers are waiting and watching, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and the local price shows a weak and stable trend. Late - maturing Fuji apples in Shaanxi and Gansu production areas are gradually being harvested, but the supply is limited due to rainfall [2]
苹果产业日报-20251009
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-09 12:03