瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251009

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate supply in China is expected to increase slightly, with downstream demand boosted by the traditional consumption season, and the option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 73,340 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -149,638 lots, up 8,581 lots; the position of the main contract was 229,022 lots, down 2,942 lots; the spread between near and far-month contracts was 140 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GME was 41,709 lots, up 590 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 540 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 869 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 7,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume was 21,846.92 tons, up 8,001.60 tons; the monthly export volume was 368.91 tons, up 2.56 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 46%, down 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 139,600 MWh, up 5,800 MWh; the price of lithium manganate was 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 63,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide was 280,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 147,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 123,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single-crystal type) in China was 131,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 0%, down 55 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 0%, down 57 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,391,000 units, up 148,000 units; the monthly sales volume was 1,395,000 units, up 133,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 45.53%, up 0.54 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume was 9,620,000 units, up 2,583,000 units; the monthly export volume was 224,000 units, down 1,000 units; the cumulative export volume was 1,532,000 units, up 714,000 units; the 20-day average volatility of the underlying was 23.71%, down 0.2 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility was 41.01%, down 0.44 percentage points [2]. Option Situation - The total subscription position was 240,851 contracts, up 7,766 contracts; the total put position was 105,724 contracts, up 1,836 contracts; the put-to-call ratio of total positions was 43.9%, down 0.6748 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money IV was 0.48%, down 0.0074 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 13%/6% respectively, with an average export price of 8,704 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 15%/2% respectively; the volume exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14%), the volume exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the volume exported to Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons), of which the volume exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the volume exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%, and the volume exported to Korea was 29,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 76% [2]. - Multiple new energy vehicle manufacturers announced their September delivery data. BYD's new energy vehicle sales in September were 396,300 units, compared with 419,400 units in the same period last year; XPeng Motors delivered 41,581 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 95% and a month-on-month increase of 10%, with the monthly delivery volume exceeding 40,000 units, setting a new historical high; Leapmotor's total delivery reached a new high of 66,657 units, a year-on-year increase of over 97%, and the monthly sales volume exceeded 60,000 units for the first time; Li Auto delivered 33,951 new cars; Voyah delivered 15,224 units; NIO delivered 34,749 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 64%; Xiaomi Auto's delivery volume exceeded 40,000 units; Zeekr delivered 51,159 cars, a year-on-year increase of 8.5% [2]. - Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of the Passenger Car Association, stated that in August, the sales volume of Chinese independent automakers in some continuously - statable overseas regions was initially estimated to be 286,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month decrease of 3%; from January to August, the sales volume of Chinese self - owned brands in the overseas market was 2.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and the retail performance of Chinese self - owned brands in some statable overseas markets was good [2]. - Data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed that in September, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.7%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and it has been operating in the range of 49% - 50% for 7 consecutive months. In the third quarter, the average value of the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter. The global economic recovery trend was relatively stable. Regionally, Asian manufacturing continued to maintain stable expansion [2].