Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,700 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,100 - 12,730 in the short - term [2] - During the holiday, some domestic tire enterprises had a 5 - 8 day maintenance plan, which dragged down the enterprise capacity utilization rate significantly. As the maintenance enterprises resume operation, the device capacity will be gradually released [2] - The inventory at Qingdao Port continued to decline, mainly in general trade warehouses. Before the festival, overseas goods arrived at the port and were warehoused in a concentrated manner, and the overall warehouse inbound volume increased month - on - month. Downstream tire factories picked up the previously ordered goods, increasing the overall outbound volume of general trade [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,415 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,465 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was 60 yuan/ton, and the 11 - 12 spread of 20 - number rubber was 10 yuan/ton [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 140,720 lots, down 378 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 34,149 lots, down 52 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 22,185 lots, up 3,236 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 11,125 lots, down 482 lots [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 145,390 tons, down 4,420 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 41,632 tons, down 402 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,820 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 was 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 765 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 430 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,968 yuan/ton, down 148 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 503 yuan/ton, down 513 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.12 Thai baht/kg, down 0.49 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.11 Thai baht/kg, down 0.7 Thai baht [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 54.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber was 50.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 171 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 15.8 US dollars/ton, up 20.8 US dollars [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 113,100 tons, down 8,800 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 268,400 tons, up 8,900 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.72%, up 0.06%; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.58%, down 0.08% [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.16 days, up 0.03 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.15 days, up 0.13 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.68%, up 2.68%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 16.86%, up 1.3% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 23.17%, up 0.51%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 23.16%, up 0.49% [2] Industry News - From October 8 - 14, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in southern Thailand and south - western Cambodia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly increasing the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, there were no red areas, and the rainfall in most other areas was moderately low, reducing the impact on tapping [2] - In September 2025, the El Niño index (ONI) was - 0.38, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19, indicating a weakening of the El Niño phenomenon month - on - month [2] - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a 15% month - on - month increase from August and an 82% year - on - year increase from 58,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to September this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 800,000 vehicles, reaching 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251009
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-09 12:03