瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - PVC supply - demand is weak, but there is cost support. The supply pressure is expected to intensify in October as new follow - up maintenance devices are few, previous shutdown devices restart, and new capacity may be put into production. Downstream demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market, and the export market is affected by the Indian anti - dumping tax. Inventory is likely to remain at a high level, which is the main source of price pressure. However, due to the deep loss of the calcium carbide process and the contraction of chlor - alkali profits, the lower limit of PVC valuation may rise, providing some support to the price. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 4719 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4769 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; trading volume was 708,041 lots, up 116,303 lots; open interest was 1,144,046 lots, up 70,687 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 128,365 lots, down 15,518 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4715 yuan/ton, down 26.15 yuan. In the South China region, ethylene - based PVC was 4995 yuan/ton, unchanged; calcium carbide - based PVC was 4776.88 yuan/ton, down 34.38 yuan. The CIF price in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The basis was - 129 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China was 2751.67 yuan/ton, down 8.33 yuan; in Northwest China was 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 513 US dollars/ton, unchanged; VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 546 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.97%, up 2.01 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.13%, up 2.8 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.75%, up 1.62 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 53.77 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in the East China region, it was 48.84 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.93 million tons, down 0.2 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.05, down 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, up 4595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, up 4377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 31,693.94 billion yuan, up 3588.01 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.51%, up 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.17%, up 0.46 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 15.07%, up 0.33 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From September 20th to 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.97%, up 2.01% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 1.43% to 47.76%, with the pipe operating rate up 1.3% to 40.43% and the profile operating rate down 0.52% to 38.91%. As of September 25th, PVC social inventory was 97.13 million tons, up 1.84% from the previous period. From September 19th to 25th, the average cost of the calcium carbide process rose to 5312 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 127 yuan/ton to - 657 yuan/ton; the average cost of the ethylene process decreased to 5602 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 645 yuan/ton [3].