瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251009

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass prices are likely to oscillate upwards due to a pattern of "slight supply contraction, reduced inventory pressure, and policy expectation support" after the holiday, but there is still a need to be vigilant against the risk of demand falling short of expectations. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the glass main contract at low levels in the short - term [2]. - For soda ash, with the potential commissioning of some Phase II facilities of Yuanxing Energy, the supply - surplus situation will intensify. Prices are under pressure in October due to the off - season of downstream demand and continuous supply growth. However, the downward momentum of prices has significantly weakened, and it is expected that soda ash may see production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery. It is recommended to lay out long positions on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1,250 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 1,218 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest is 1,317,458 lots, up 67,092 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,151,489 lots, up 160,754 lots. - Soda ash's top 20 net position is - 228,442 lots, up 11,845 lots; glass's top 20 net position is - 115,648 lots, down 31,026 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 7,333 tons, up 981 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash basis is - 65 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; glass basis is - 62 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. - The spread between January and May glass contracts is - 120 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the spread between January and May soda ash contracts is - 94 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,156 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; Central China glass sheets are 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 89.12% (weekly), up 3.59 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 76.01% (weekly), unchanged. - Glass in - production capacity is 16.07 million tons/year (weekly), up 0.05 million tons; glass in - production production lines are 225 (weekly), unchanged. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.6598 million tons (weekly), up 0.0599 million tons; glass enterprise inventory is 59.355 million weight boxes (weekly), down 1.553 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 398.0101 million square meters, up 45.9501 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant reduced production due to synthetic ammonia issues, with stable prices. - Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang's soda ash plant increased its load. - Chongqing Heyou Industrial's 400,000 - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its load. - Qinghai Wucai's 1.1 - million - ton/year soda ash plant is operating stably, currently not quoting prices and implementing one - order - one - negotiation. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced production, operating at about 70% capacity. - Shandong Haitian Bio - Chemical's 1.5 - million - ton/year soda ash plant resumed production. - Shandong Haihua's 3 - million - ton/year soda ash plant reduced its load. - Anhui Huainan Alkali Plant's boiler was ignited. - The soda ash market in Sichuan and Chongqing is stable. With the resumption of plant operations, supply is expected to increase, and the market is filled with strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. 3.6 Glass Market Analysis - From the supply side, glass production lines in October continued the relatively stable trend of September. Due to the approaching peak season of natural gas demand and the expected increase in natural gas prices, the profit of natural gas - fueled production lines will be further squeezed, and the willingness to cold - repair such lines may significantly increase. In addition, the implementation of policies to manage backward production capacity may limit capacity release. - From the demand side, the real - estate sales during the National Day holiday were generally good, but the stabilization of demand may not be sustainable. The market is expected to shift from supply - demand trading to policy - driven trading after the holiday. The price of glass is likely to oscillate upwards [2]. 3.7 Soda Ash Market Analysis - Yuanxing Energy's Phase II facilities are expected to be gradually commissioned, intensifying the supply - surplus situation. In October, during the off - season of downstream demand and with continuous supply growth, enterprise inventory is likely to rise again, putting pressure on prices. The demand from the real - estate and photovoltaic industries may not strongly support the soda ash market. However, the weakening downward momentum of prices may lead to production cuts, which could stimulate price recovery [2].