生猪产业日报-20251009

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market presents a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high pig slaughter volume and continued supply pressure, while terminal demand slows down after the double - festival concentrated stocking, suppressing the decline of spot prices. The main pig futures contract opened lower after the holiday, and it is expected that the pig will continue its weak and volatile market in the short term as the fundamentals of loose supply and demand are difficult to reverse [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main pig futures contract is 11,595 yuan/ton, down 760 yuan; the main contract position is 58,336 lots, down 2,769 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 32,443 lots, down 4,742 lots; the number of pig warehouse receipts is 0 [2]. Spot Price - The pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,500 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,100 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the main pig basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of reproductive sows is 4,0380,000 heads, a decrease of 40,000 heads; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the weekly price of binary reproductive sows is 1,548 yuan/head, a decrease of 77 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year CPI is - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the daily spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily corn spot price is 2,318.24 yuan/ton, down 50.39 yuan; the daily Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 882.73, down 0.52; the monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, an increase of 999,000 tons; the weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 236.57 yuan/head, down 37.26 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 74.11 yuan/head, down 49.67 yuan; the weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, an increase of 1840,000 heads; the monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.4 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - On October 9, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 312,700 heads, a 16.61% increase from before the holiday. Group farms are actively slaughtering to meet the slaughter plan, and individual farmers are increasing slaughter due to pessimism, resulting in a high national pig slaughter volume [2].