烧碱产业日报-20251009

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The average capacity utilization rate of China's sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above increased slightly, and the overall caustic soda production capacity utilization rate increased slightly with little change. The downstream alumina device runs stably with a slight increase in the start - up rate, while the start - up rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing change slightly. During the holiday, some downstream enterprises stopped work, leading to inventory accumulation and high pressure in liquid caustic soda factories. The subsidy of liquid chlorine in Shandong cannot offset the weak caustic soda price, and the chlor - alkali profit narrows month - on - month. The expected decrease in the maintenance loss of chlor - alkali devices in October may drive up the central value of caustic soda capacity utilization. The alumina profit continues to decline and approaches the break - even line, and the short - term caustic soda consumption demand is not expected to shrink significantly. Non - aluminum downstream lacks demand improvement signals and is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There was an inventory accumulation expectation for liquid caustic soda factories during the National Day due to logistics blockages, and the inventory pressure may ease after the festival. There are new alumina device investments from the fourth quarter of this year to the beginning of next year, giving an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the long - term. Technically, the short - term market trend of SH2601 is bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton; the position of the main caustic soda contract is 102,719 lots, an increase of 18,857 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 2697 lots, a decrease of 3064 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 290,860 lots, an increase of 116,592 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 2450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is 940 yuan/ton with no change. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis of caustic soda is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 81 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu is - 75 yuan/ton with no change [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,120 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina is 2885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 19th to 25th, the average capacity utilization rate of China's 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises was 82.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. From September 27th to October 3rd, the national alumina start - up rate was 86.18%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%. From September 26th to October 9th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 0.19% month - on - month to 89.63%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 0.47% month - on - month to 66.63%. As of October 9th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 421,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 7.68% and a year - on - year increase of 26.56%. From September 19th to 25th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 258 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease [3].