有色套利早报-20251010

Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking Copper - Spot price in China is 85,900, LME price is 10,843, and the ratio is 7.69; three - month price in China is 86,820, LME price is 10,868, and the ratio is 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.11, with a loss of 968.44, and a profit of 1465.36 for spot export [1] Zinc - Spot price in China is 22,140, LME price is 3,096, and the ratio is 7.15; three - month price in China is 22,335, LME price is 3,030, and the ratio is 5.59. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.53, with a loss of 4264.28 [1] Aluminum - Spot price in China is 20,960, LME price is 2,796, and the ratio is 7.50; three - month price in China is 21,085, LME price is 2,788, and the ratio is 7.53. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.38, with a loss of 2476.58 [1] Nickel - Spot price in China is 121,850, LME price is 15,358, and the ratio is 7.93. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.19, with a loss of 2247.17 [1] Lead - Spot price in China is 16,775, LME price is 1,986, and the ratio is 8.46; three - month price in China is 17,135, LME price is 2,016, and the ratio is 11.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import is 8.83, with a loss of 734.46 [3] 2. Cross - term Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 3400, 3470, 3500, and 3400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 519, 936, 1361, and 1787 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 1175, 1195, 1230, and 1260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 209, 323, 438, and 553 [4] Aluminum - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 380, 375, 375, and 370 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 215, 330, 446, and 561 [4] Lead - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 690, 710, 720, and 595 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 413, and 517 [4] Nickel - The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot - month contract are 4170, 4350, 4540, and 4810 respectively [4] Tin - The spread of the 5 - 1 contract is - 210, and the theoretical spread is 5939 [4] 3. Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking Copper - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 2370 and 1030 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are - 208 and 762 [4] Zinc - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 1000 and 175 respectively, and the theoretical spreads are 116 and 246 (also mentioned as 59 and 240) [4][5] Lead - The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot are - 350 and 340 respectively, while the theoretical spreads are 44 and 156 [5] 4. Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) are 3.89, 4.12, 5.07, 0.94, 1.23, and 0.77 respectively; for LME (three - continuous contracts) are 3.61, 3.88, 5.35, 0.93, 1.38, and 0.67 respectively [5]