芳烃橡胶早报-20251010

Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on aromatics and rubber, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 10, 2025 [2] PTA Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of crude oil remained at 65.2, the price of PTA spot decreased by 35 to 4500, and the price of POY 150D/48F decreased by 55 to 6595. The PTA processing difference remained at 112, and the polyester gross profit decreased by 8 to 182. The PTA balance load increased by 0.6 to 80.7, and the PTA load remained at 77.1. The number of warehouse receipts + valid forecasts increased by 3006 to 33522, and the TA basis decreased by 7 to -60. The sales volume increased by 0.2 to 0.50 [2] Device Changes - Hengli Dalian's 2.2 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance, and Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device reduced its load [2] Weekly View - Near - term PX has some maintenance delays and an increase in the load of existing production capacity, gradually passing the fastest destocking stage. With short - term stable supply of the two oils, the short - process efficiency of TA may be under pressure. TA's low processing fees have led to more maintenance and production reduction discussions, but the polyester load has also declined. The inventory remains low, the processing fees have slightly recovered, and there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - term. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to shrink the PX - MX spread when the price is high and the opportunity to expand the far - month TA processing fees when the price is low [2] MEG Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 805, the MEG outer - market price decreased by 8 to 494, and the MEG inner - market price decreased by 51 to 4224. The MEG coal - making profit decreased by 51 to 77, and the MEG inner - market cash flow (ethylene) remained at - 699. The total MEG load, coal - made MEG load, and non - coal - made load remained unchanged, and the MEG port inventory remained at 40.9 [2] Device Changes - Shanxi Meijin's 300,000 - ton MEG device was under maintenance [2] Weekly View - Near - term EG has the return of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, so the supply remains at a relatively high level, and the arrival at the port has increased month - on - month. The port may gradually enter the inventory accumulation stage, but the current situation is still good, and the valuation may be slowly compressed. Attention should be paid to the cost support of coal - made MEG and the opportunity to sell put options close to the coal - made cost [2] Polyester Staple Fiber Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 to 6460, and the price of low - melting - point staple fiber remained at 7350. The profit of pure - polyester yarn increased by 65 to - 60, and the difference between cotton and polyester staple fiber decreased by 40 to 8040 [2][3] Weekly View - Near - term devices are operating stably, with an operating rate of 95.4%. The sales volume has improved month - on - month, and the inventory has significantly decreased. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, raw material inventory has increased, and the finished - product inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the efficiency is weak. In the future, the speed of increasing the load of polyester yarn may slow down due to high finished - product inventory. The operating rate of staple fiber remains high due to good spot efficiency, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fees are expected to fluctuate [2][3] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber increased by 35 to 1835, and the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to 1800. The price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by 385 to 14215, and the price of Shanghai 3L rubber increased by 100 to 15200. The price of Thai glue decreased by 1 to 53.9, and the price of Thai cup glue remained at 50.7 [5] Daily and Weekly Changes - The daily change shows an increase in most prices, while the weekly change shows a decline in some prices. For example, the weekly change of US - dollar Thai standard rubber decreased by 15, and the weekly change of Shanghai full - latex rubber decreased by 205 [5] Today's View - The main contradictions are that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup glue remains stable, with rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5] Styrene Section Data Summary - From September 25 to October 9, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 805, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 710, and the price of styrene (CFR China) remained at 835. The price of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 10 to 6790, and the price of styrene in South China decreased by 35 to 6935. The price of EPS (East China ordinary material) decreased by 100 to 7750 [8] Daily Changes - The daily change shows a decrease in most prices, such as the price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 110, and the price of PS (East China transparent benzene) decreased by 50 [8]